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pinky166
11-17-2010, 04:18 AM
Juniors scores cant be compared to Seniors. I/K this year are already evidence of that. Murakami would definitely beat Gao on PCS and I dont think Gao would outjump her enough to compensate.

If Gao does the hypothetical jumps you said all clean of course she would have a reasonable chance to make it but the judges would probably still put Flatt, Nagasu, and Czisny on the team over her at this point all things equal. We will see though.

It is true nobody knows what Yu Na would do in her first event of the year. I see them giving Miki a 2nd World title as a last resort kind of option for them though, they are probably already ailing they had to give her the first one. She was never a big judges favorite compared to the other very top (Asada, Kim, Rochette, Kostner) skaters. The judges will be praying any of Asada, Kim, or Rochette show up at Worlds and skates even reasonably well, and if none of that occurs and Ando skates lights out then they might grudgingly give her the gold.

You're right, but junior scores are usually LOWER than senior scores, especially regarding PCS. I mean, the Shibutani's have just made the jump to seniors and are winning medals already and getting high scores, Kanako just scored her PB FS score with a FS with a number of errors.

As for nationals, Alissa is really inconsistent, it seems like because of SC people are convinced she's back and better than ever but I'm not so sure, and further a couple mistakes from her will get her down to like, 3 or 4 triples in the FS, which shouldn't hold her up over Christina if Christina is clean. Also GOE, Christina has big, nice fully rotated jumps and Alissa's jumps are fine but not great, the same goes for Rachael. Mirai has nice jumps when she rotates them, but her injury may hold her back, and now Rachael is injured too, so I'm not convinced they will be the 2 to go at this point.

judgejudy27
11-17-2010, 09:12 AM
The Shibutanis are skating miles better than last season. That is why they are able to medal in Senior Grand Prix events when they couldnt even medal at Junior Worlds last year. So of course their scores will go up, it in no way implies easier judging. :lol: Murakami has also improved since last season.

Frau Muller
11-17-2010, 02:12 PM
After Skate America, I would add Joshi Helgesson to the list. I can easily see her make Euros podium this year and win the next. She has a very sincere (non-snooty) and uplifting ice presence, not to mention technique, musicality, etc. Ksenia Makarova is also along these lines but Joshi is even more charismatic.

pinky166
11-17-2010, 04:53 PM
After Skate America, I would add Joshi Helgesson to the list. I can easily see her make Euros podium this year and win the next. She has a very sincere (non-snooty) and uplifting ice presence, not to mention technique, musicality, etc. Ksenia Makarova is also along these lines but Joshi is even more charismatic.

Let's be honest though Ksenia is a much better skater than Joshi at this point. Joshi has a lot of potential for the future but she's not soup yet, sometimes she still seems awkward and juniorish. She also has UR issues, though they seemed improved at SA. I think she can definitely be top 10, probably top 5 at Euros but medaling will probably be a stretch this season.

wonderlen
11-17-2010, 06:33 PM
At this point Knesia seem to be the best euro lady in term of what can offer in TES. She has complete set of triples, 3+3, minor edge problem and she can polish her program better and land her jumps a little more smoother, it will be hard to beat. As much as Calrolina PCS is above the rest of the euro ladies, program with Loop, Salcow and Toe will only get you so far now that you can only do two 2A and both salcow and 2A value is decrease.

MikiAndoFan#1
11-17-2010, 06:37 PM
As much as Calrolina PCS is above the rest of the euro ladies, program with Loop, Salcow and Toe will only get you so far now that you can only do two 2A and both salcow and 2A value is decrease.

She hasn't been attempting Flips and Lutzes because she is injured.

alchemy void
11-18-2010, 06:14 AM
After Skate America, I would add Joshi Helgesson to the list. I can easily see her make Euros podium this year and win the next. She has a very sincere (non-snooty) and uplifting ice presence, not to mention technique, musicality, etc. Ksenia Makarova is also along these lines but Joshi is even more charismatic.

Yes, because sincerity and uplifting qualities are such an important part of PCS. :rolleyes: She has nice potential but has UR issues, basic skating issues, and a serious lack of power/speed to deal with before she makes the podium even at Euros. Her sister, Viktoria, is much more likely to place top 5 than she is.

But back to the original point, if Korpii and especially Lepisto could ever skate back-to-back clean performances, they could win a world title this year. Lepisto's Olympic freeskate is my favorite ladies skating performance of the last 5 years (of course excluding Gizmo and my beloved OES).

But its between those two, Kostner, and the Russian girls. I like Makarova but her programs are poorly constructed this year. :wall: I really feel like Leonova has much better programs, in terms of choreography and transitions. If she can skate well at Cup of Russia this week and beat Makarova, I think Leonova can be a contender for the Euros ladies, too. Alright, flame away on that opinion, because I know it's unpopular! :lol:

vodkashot
11-19-2010, 11:13 AM
If Lepisto and Korpii skate back-to-back clean programmes at Worlds?


Hell would freeze over, pigs will fly, Carolina Kostner will also skate clean, etc., etc.

museksk8r
11-19-2010, 11:39 AM
If Lepisto and Korpii skate back-to-back clean programmes at Worlds?


Hell would freeze over, pigs will fly, Carolina Kostner will also skate clean, etc., etc.

Pigs can fly, silly! ;):P

kukkura
11-19-2010, 03:39 PM
Why do folks find it so unpleasant to speculate what Korpi could achieve by skating clean? Stranger things have happened, like Sandhu at the 2004 GP final. We have a pretty good idea how much Lepistö is able to score, but is it really just a complete waste of energy to estimate how much Korpi's new programs are worth when performed flawlessly?

pinky166
11-19-2010, 03:47 PM
Why do folks find it so unpleasant to speculate what Korpi could achieve by skating clean? Stranger things have happened, like Sandhu at the 2004 GP final. We have a pretty good idea how much Lepistö is able to score, but is it really just a complete waste of energy to estimate how much Korpi's new programs are worth when performed flawlessly?

I'd say clean Korpi would be maybe 5 points below a clean Lepisto for the FS. So for a SP I think she could score 60ish if clean, and for the FS maybe 115-120?

Nomad
11-19-2010, 08:52 PM
I think if Kiira were to nail all her elements in the SP and the LP, she could score at least 170.

pinky166
11-19-2010, 10:18 PM
I think if Kiira were to nail all her elements in the SP and the LP, she could score at least 170.

I'd say maybe 175-180, according to my above post

judgejudy27
11-19-2010, 10:35 PM
It is hard to say since the scores right now seem lower. I am pretty sure Lepisto would go past 180 no problem in this scenario though, even with the lower scores this year. And if she does that the only ones who could beat her are Kim obviously, a fully recovered Asada, Rochette if she returns, or maybe (but I am not sure at all) a totally clean Nagasu.

Nomad
11-19-2010, 10:54 PM
I'd say maybe 175-180, according to my above post

I did not include GOEs in my estimate, which is why I said "at least". I was also conservative on the PCS, using Nebelhorn as my guide.