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View Full Version : Can Hanyu and Murakami make the world team this year & if so, who would they replace?



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ainouta
10-28-2010, 05:38 AM
Mao has nothing to prove. She is a two-time World champion and Olympic silver medallist, as well as a huge star in Japan. She is reworking her technique. Everybody knows that this takes time. It ain't going to be pretty for a while.

But if you think a healthy Mao is not going to be named to the Worlds team, then you obviously haven't been following very closely how the JSF selects skaters. :lol:

*cough2006OlympicTeamcoughYukariwuzrobbedcough* :shuffle:

I don't think that Murakami will bump off Suzuki. Akiko attempts more difficulty in the jumps, has more reliable technique, and also gets Nationals inflation (see: last year's results.) Besides, Akiko has more sentimental value in terms of her struggle with anorexia, etc.

I honestly think Hanyu has better programs in the past, and I'm hoping that Kozuka will finally gain some of the JSF's favor after being a reliable performer for a couple of years.

pinky166
10-28-2010, 05:53 AM
Asada should take this season out, it's silly.

I hope Murakami replaces Ando or Asada (Fred is making a good point but what if Asada places like 9th at Nats - still gonna be named? :/).

I hope Hanyu replaces Oda whom I used to love in Juniors but now he's mind numbingly boring.

I though that being freed from Morozov would change that but then I saw his music choices. :shuffle:

I don't see why JSF would bump off Ando or Asada as both are world champions with a good chance at winning another title.

judgejudy27
10-28-2010, 05:58 AM
The fact Ando was put on the 2006 Olympic team after coming only 6th at Nationals only illustrates allezfred's point about how the JSF pick their teams. And she wasnt even a World Champion or World medalist yet. And had finished lower than Nakano at the Grand Prix final that year too. However since she had been 4th and 6th at the previous two Worlds and was back then an up and coming star she still got the nod to go to the Olympics.

So Mao the 2 time and reigning World Champion could probably come 8th at Nationals and still be sent.

ks777
10-28-2010, 06:22 AM
I think Hanyu is better than Machida. Machida does everything ok.. nothing particularly stands out.. His jumps aren't big, his skating skills aren't nowhere near takahashi or Kozuka, he doesn't have a soft knee like Oda and his jumps doesn't flow like Hanyu.
Machida just doesn't grab me like takahashi, kozuka and Hanyu. He is an inferior version of Oda to me.

Marco
10-28-2010, 07:09 AM
The fact Ando was put on the 2006 Olympic team after coming only 6th at Nationals only illustrates allezfred's point about how the JSF pick their teams. And she wasnt even a World Champion or World medalist yet. And had finished lower than Nakano at the Grand Prix final that year too. However since she had been 4th and 6th at the previous two Worlds and was back then an up and coming star she still got the nod to go to the Olympics.

So Mao the 2 time and reigning World Champion could probably come 8th at Nationals and still be sent.

At 2006 they had that point system where both the 2005 and 2006 seasons were considered. Ando's consistency over the 2 GP seasons were rewarded. Nakano's surge came too late. In hindsight it was unfortunate for Olympic berth purposes that her peak years were 2006 to 2008.

Back on Asada - I obviously understand JFed can still decide to send an Asada who came 8th at Nationals, but it's by no means guaranteed. If Asada consistently does poorly all season I can see JFed ditching her for Worlds this season.

judgejudy27
10-28-2010, 07:16 AM
They wont ditch Mao for Worlds since no matter how bad she does all season she has a great shot to win Worlds if she skated her best and if Kim doesnt skate her best. They dont have any other women that can win Worlds. Miki isnt likely going to win Worlds again barring a miracle, and Murakami would do extremely well to get a bronze this year.

briancoogaert
10-28-2010, 09:47 AM
Murakami can replace Ando or Suzuki. But I don't think Yuzuru will replace any of the top 3 men.

blue_idealist
10-28-2010, 02:11 PM
I don't think Hanyu will bump Takahashi or Kozuka. He's clearly not as good as Takahashi, even if he does his best and Dai makes mistakes. Hanyu's artistry also leaves a lot to be desired, compared with Kozuka. I actually wouldn't see him beating Oda, either, unless Oda has a meltdown close to what happened at Worlds 2010.

It might be easier for Murakami to displace someone due to the inconsistency of Asada, Ando, and Suzuki. If they look at placements alone, I don't think Asada is safe but she may be named to the team anyway due to her past results. Ando and Suzuki can either be really great or bomb, so if they happen to bomb and Murakami is good that day, she might sneak in there.

Sylvia
10-28-2010, 02:28 PM
Japan Skating Federation's published criteria re. 2011 Worlds -- see: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?32707-JSF-s-criteria-2010-11-on-who-to-send-to-Worlds&p=515655#post515655

lowtherlore
10-28-2010, 02:45 PM
Mao will be there as long as she can manage standing on her feet. They have invested in her too much, too long. She still is the marketing focus for Japanese figure skating, which is not a minor sport there. Not sending Mao to Worlds IN TOKYO would be equivalent of admitting that it has been a big hype after all, and it would be disastrous for domestic marketing of the sport in Japan.

IMO Mao doesn’t have intention to carry on with substantial overhaul of her jumping techniques, at least for now. It was obvious after watching her jumps at NHK. In that context, I think she has reasonable chance to regain her old mediocre form in time for Worlds. Whether it would be good for her in the long run, or whether Sato would be happy with that, is another matter.

I think Murakami is also a near lock for appearance at Worlds, unless she bomb beyond hope at their nationals. They seem anxious to showcase her on the big stage. And their media, sponsors and Japan the people have the thing for teen fetish. If she deliver this season, she could challenge Mao’s position as the marketing queen in Japan.

Ando has realistic chance to be on the podium. Time and again she proved she could skate relatively clean in big competitions. She could end up winning the whole thing again, if the likes of Yu-Na bomb at Worlds.

So I think it would be Asada, Murakami and Ando for Japanese ladies.

For men, IMO Takahashi is the only sure thing. As for Hanyu, a teen MALE figure skater is not exactly manga-theme friendly, and they could afford giving him another year or two. I think Oda, Kozuka, Machida and Hanyu will be all on even ground. I would give Oda and Kozuka some edge.

pinky166
10-28-2010, 05:44 PM
lowtherlore ITA. I tend to think Mao and Miki will be there, especially if Miki is skating well this season.

Lainerb
10-29-2010, 12:11 AM
We have already seen Miki land 2axel+3toe at Japan Open this season and she looks to be attempting 3z+3l again based off exhibition performances of her SP. With the current state of ladies unless Kim or Rochette go to Worlds then really Ando is once again a favorite.

lowtherlore
10-29-2010, 01:08 AM
....With the current state of ladies unless Kim or Rochette go to Worlds then really Ando is once again a favorite.

I agree. Jumps alone, I think Ando is fundamentally better than Asada. She always was.

miki88
10-29-2010, 01:17 AM
IMO Mao doesn’t have intention to carry on with substantial overhaul of her jumping techniques, at least for now. It was obvious after watching her jumps at NHK. In that context, I think she has reasonable chance to regain her old mediocre form in time for Worlds. Whether it would be good for her in the long run, or whether Sato would be happy with that, is another matter.

Lol, I am always amazed at your "insight" into what the Japanese skaters thinks and how the JSF works.
:sheep:


For men, IMO Takahashi is the only sure thing. As for Hanyu, a teen MALE figure skater is not exactly manga-theme friendly, and they could afford giving him another year or two

:rofl:

pinky166
10-29-2010, 01:35 AM
I agree. Jumps alone, I think Ando is fundamentally better than Asada. She always was.

Me too. Especially since she's worked a lot on her flexibility and spins recently, they are now up to snuff with the rest of the top ladies (not amazing, but not bad like in her earlier years). Plus she was pretty consistent with her jumps all last season.