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UMBS Go Blue
09-24-2010, 08:03 AM
How many seats will the Republican Party win in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2010 election?

This bet will remain open until November 1, although odds will be adjusted periodically to reflect campaign developments. You may make multiple bets, but, for example, if you make a bet on October 1 on a 2/1 outcome, and, on October 15, the odds for that outcome are changed to 15/1, then your original October 1 bet will still reflect the original October 1 odds: 2/1.

ETA: It might also be a fun exercise, in retrospect, to track how the odds will have changed over the course of the campaign. So, as of today (Sep 23) the starting odds are:

GOP wins 242 seats or more - 12/1
GOP wins 234-241 seats - 5/1
GOP wins 226-233 seats - 2/1
GOP wins 218-225 seats - 7/4
GOP wins 210-217 seats - 2/1
GOP wins 202-209 seats - 5/1
GOP wins 201 seats or less - 12/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-06-2010, 06:41 PM
A GOP takeover of the House (218+) looks all but certain, it's just by how much.

GOP wins 242 seats or more 8/1
GOP wins 234-241 seats 3/1
GOP wins 226-233 seats 3/2 F
GOP wins 218-225 seats 3/2 F
GOP wins 210-217 seats 3/1
GOP wins 202-209 seats 8/1
GOP wins 201 seats or less 16/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-13-2010, 07:37 PM
Less than 3 weeks to go, revised odds.

GOP wins 242 seats or more 3/1
GOP wins 234-241 seats 3/2
GOP wins 226-233 seats 3/4 F
GOP wins 218-225 seats 3/2
GOP wins 210-217 seats 3/1
GOP wins 202-209 seats 10/1
GOP wins 201 seats or less 25/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-16-2010, 08:20 PM
2 weeks to go. Is it going to be high tide or a tsunami?

GOP wins 242 seats or more 2/1
GOP wins 234-241 seats 3/4 F
GOP wins 226-233 seats 3/4 F
GOP wins 218-225 seats 2/1
GOP wins 210-217 seats 5/1
GOP wins 202-209 seats 15/1
GOP wins 201 seats or less 50/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-22-2010, 04:24 AM
This item will now close Tuesday 10/26 at 11:59pm US Pacific Time, one week before the election.

UMBS Go Blue
10-26-2010, 01:12 AM
Final revision before this item closes, to reflect the fact that the GOP will more likely surprise on the upside than the downside as far as House expectations are concerned.

GOP wins 242 seats or more 1/1
GOP wins 234-241 seats 1/2 F
GOP wins 226-233 seats 1/1
GOP wins 218-225 seats 5/2
GOP wins 210-217 seats 15/1
GOP wins 202-209 seats 50/1
GOP wins 201 seats or less 200/1

UMBS Go Blue
11-05-2010, 04:21 PM
Currently, 239 seats have been declared for the GOP, with the GOP leading in 4 of 9 remaining undeclared seats. Let's call it at 243.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/house/big-board