PDA

View Full Version : 2010 US Politics - Governor, California



UMBS Go Blue
09-24-2010, 07:52 AM
What will be the result of the 2010 gubernatorial race in California?

This bet will remain open until November 1, although odds will be adjusted periodically to reflect campaign developments. You may make multiple bets, but, for example, if you make a bet on October 1 on a 2/1 outcome, and, on October 15, the odds for that outcome are changed to 15/1, then your original October 1 bet will still reflect the original October 1 odds: 2/1.

As for a particular outcome, "winning by 2.00%," for example, means the following:

Candidate A - 51.00%
Candidate B - 49.00%
===================
Margin of Victory - 2.00%

So "winning by 2.00%" refers to the margin of victory.

ETA: It might also be a fun exercise, in retrospect, to track how the odds will have changed over the course of the campaign. So, as of today (Sep 23) the starting odds are:

Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by >= 6.00% - 6/1
Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by 3.00% - 5.99% - 2/1
Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by 0.00% - 2.99% - 1/1
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by 0.00% - 2.99% - 2/1
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by 3.00% - 5.99% - 6/1
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by >=6.00% - 12/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-06-2010, 06:36 PM
With help from Gloria Allred, Brown is breaking out ahead of Whitman:

Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by >= 6.00% - 3/1
Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by 3.00% - 5.99% - 3/2
Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by 0.00% - 2.99% - 3/2
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by 0.00% - 2.99% - 3/1
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by 3.00% - 5.99% - 8/1
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by >=6.00% - 16/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-16-2010, 08:17 PM
Revised odds
Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by >= 6.00% - 3/1
Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by 3.00% - 5.99% - 1/1 F
Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by 0.00% - 2.99% - 1/1 F
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by 0.00% - 2.99% - 3/1
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by 3.00% - 5.99% - 8/1
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by >=6.00% - 16/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-22-2010, 04:18 AM
This item will now close Tuesday 10/26 at 11:59pm US Pacific Time, one week before the election.

Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by >= 6.00% - 3/1
Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by 3.00% - 5.99% - 3/4 F
Brown (D) beats Whitman (R) by 0.00% - 2.99% - 3/4 F
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by 0.00% - 2.99% - 3/1
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by 3.00% - 5.99% - 8/1
Whitman (R) beats Brown (D) by >=6.00% - 16/1

UMBS Go Blue
11-03-2010, 03:38 PM
Brown also pulled away in the final week -12.7% margin.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/california