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UMBS Go Blue
09-24-2010, 07:41 AM
What will be the result of the 2010 gubernatorial race in Massachusetts?

This bet will remain open until November 1, although odds will be adjusted periodically to reflect campaign developments. You may make multiple bets, but, for example, if you make a bet on October 1 on a 2/1 outcome, and, on October 15, the odds for that outcome are changed to 15/1, then your original October 1 bet will still reflect the original October 1 odds: 2/1.

As for a particular outcome, "winning by 2.00%," for example, means the following:

* Winning candidate - 44.00%
* 2nd highest candidate - 42.00%
3rd highest candidate - 14.00%
===================
* Margin of Victory - 2.00%

So "winning by 2.00%" refers to the margin of victory.

ETA: It might also be a fun exercise, in retrospect, to track how the odds will have changed over the course of the campaign. So, as of today (Sep 23) the starting odds are:

Patrick (D) wins by >= 5.00% - 5/4
Patrick (D) wins by 0.00% - 4.99% - 1/1
Baker (R) wins by 0.00% - 4.99% - 5/4
Baker (R) wins by >=5.00% - 10/1
Cahill (I) wins - 100/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-01-2010, 05:49 PM
Intrigue in Massachusetts as Cahill's campaign implodes! :watch:

Odds for Cahill revised to 1000/1, and could be revised further pending a campaign statement at 2pm ET.

UMBS Go Blue
10-06-2010, 06:38 PM
A narrow Patrick victory still looks likeliest.

Patrick (D) wins by >= 5.00% - 2/1
Patrick (D) wins by 0.00% - 4.99% - 3/4
Baker (R) wins by 0.00% - 4.99% - 2/1
Baker (R) wins by >=5.00% - 10/1
Cahill (I) wins - 1000/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-16-2010, 08:25 PM
Revised

Patrick (D) wins by >= 5.00% - 3/4 F
Patrick (D) wins by 0.00% - 4.99% - 3/4 F
Baker (R) wins by 0.00% - 4.99% - 2/1
Baker (R) wins by >=5.00% - 10/1
Cahill (I) wins - 1000/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-22-2010, 04:18 AM
This item will now close Tuesday 10/26 at 11:59pm US Pacific Time, one week before the election.

UMBS Go Blue
11-03-2010, 03:39 PM
6.7% margin with 98% reporting.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/massachusetts