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UMBS Go Blue
09-24-2010, 07:25 AM
What will be the composition of the U.S. Senate following the November 2010 elections? For simplicity, we will assume that the 2 independents, Lieberman and Sanders, are counted as Democrats.

This bet will remain open until November 1, although odds will be adjusted periodically to reflect campaign developments. You may make multiple bets, but, for example, if you make a bet on October 1 on a 2/1 outcome, and, on October 15, the odds for that outcome are changed to 15/1, then your original October 1 bet will still reflect the original October 1 odds: 2/1.

It might also be a fun exercise, in retrospect, to track how the odds will have changed over the course of the campaign. So, as of today (Sep 23) the starting odds are:

Dem >=54, GOP <=46 - 10/1
Dem 53, GOP 47 - 5/1
Dem 52, GOP 48 - 2/1
Dem 51, GOP 49 - 2/1
Dem 50, GOP 50 - 2/1
Dem 49, GOP 51 - 5/1
Dem <=48, GOP >=52 - 15/1

UMBS Go Blue
09-27-2010, 11:22 PM
Updated odds
Dem >=54, GOP <=46 - 6/1
Dem 53, GOP 47 - 2/1 F
Dem 52, GOP 48 - 2/1 F
Dem 51, GOP 49 - 2/1 F
Dem 50, GOP 50 - 4/1
Dem 49, GOP 51 - 8/1
Dem <=48, GOP >=52 - 16/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-01-2010, 07:40 AM
Further clarification: If Lisa Murkowski of Alaska wins her independent write-in bid for re-election, we'll count her as a Republican.

UMBS Go Blue
10-06-2010, 06:46 PM
Readjusting odds once again:

Dem >=54, GOP <=46 - 8/1
Dem 53, GOP 47 - 4/1
Dem 52, GOP 48 - 2/1
Dem 51, GOP 49 - 2/1
Dem 50, GOP 50 - 2/1
Dem 49, GOP 51 - 4/1
Dem <=48, GOP >=52 - 8/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-13-2010, 07:39 PM
Less than 3 weeks to go, revising odds:
Dem >=54, GOP <=46 12/1
Dem 53, GOP 47 4/1
Dem 52, GOP 48 2/1
Dem 51, GOP 49 3/2 F
Dem 50, GOP 50 3/2 F
Dem 49, GOP 51 2/1
Dem <=48, GOP >=52 12/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-16-2010, 08:32 PM
Updated

Dem >=54, GOP <=46 12/1
Dem 53, GOP 47 4/1
Dem 52, GOP 48 3/2 F
Dem 51, GOP 49 3/2 F
Dem 50, GOP 50 3/2 F
Dem 49, GOP 51 2/1
Dem <=48, GOP >=52 12/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-22-2010, 04:23 AM
This item will now close Tuesday 10/26 at 11:59pm US Pacific Time, one week before the election.

Dem >=54, GOP <=46 12/1
Dem 53, GOP 47 2/1
Dem 52, GOP 48 3/4 F
Dem 51, GOP 49 3/4 F
Dem 50, GOP 50 2/1
Dem 49, GOP 51 6/1
Dem <=48, GOP >=52 20/1

UMBS Go Blue
11-05-2010, 06:16 AM
Washington and Colorado squeaked through for the Democrats, so we'll call it at 53-47, assuming that either Lisa Murkowski (who would seat herself with the GOP) or Joe Miller (GOP) wins Alaska.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/senate/big-board