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UMBS Go Blue
09-24-2010, 07:52 AM
What will be the result of the 2010 U.S. Senate race in California?

This bet will remain open until November 1, although odds will be adjusted periodically to reflect campaign developments. You may make multiple bets, but, for example, if you make a bet on October 1 on a 2/1 outcome, and, on October 15, the odds for that outcome are changed to 15/1, then your original October 1 bet will still reflect the original October 1 odds: 2/1.

As for a particular outcome, "winning by 2.00%," for example, means the following:

Candidate A - 51.00%
Candidate B - 49.00%
===================
Margin of Victory - 2.00%

So "winning by 2.00%" refers to the margin of victory.

ETA: It might also be a fun exercise, in retrospect, to track how the odds will have changed over the course of the campaign. So, as of today (Sep 23) the starting odds are:

Boxer (D) beats Fiorina (R) by >= 8.00% - 6/1
Boxer (D) beats Fiorina (R) by 4.00% - 7.99% - 2/1
Boxer (D) beats Fiorina (R) by 0.00% - 3.99% - 1/1
Fiorina (R) beats Boxer (D) by 0.00% - 3.99% - 3/2
Fiorina (R) beats Boxer (D) by 4.00% - 7.99% - 3/1
Fiorina (R) beats Boxer (D) by >= 8.00% - 10/1

UMBS Go Blue
09-28-2010, 12:26 AM
Updated odds

Boxer (D) beats Fiorina (R) by >= 8.00% 3/1
Boxer (D) beats Fiorina (R) by 4.00% - 7.99% 1/1 F
Boxer (D) beats Fiorina (R) by 0.00% - 3.99% 1/1 F
Fiorina (R) beats Boxer (D) by 0.00% - 3.99% 5/2
Fiorina (R) beats Boxer (D) by 4.00% - 7.99% 6/1
Fiorina (R) beats Boxer (D) by >= 8.00% 15/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-16-2010, 09:30 PM
Revised

Boxer (D) beats Fiorina (R) by >= 8.00% 3/1
Boxer (D) beats Fiorina (R) by 4.00% - 7.99% 3/2
Boxer (D) beats Fiorina (R) by 0.00% - 3.99% 1/1 F
Fiorina (R) beats Boxer (D) by 0.00% - 3.99% 3/2
Fiorina (R) beats Boxer (D) by 4.00% - 7.99% 3/1
Fiorina (R) beats Boxer (D) by >= 8.00% 10/1

UMBS Go Blue
10-21-2010, 01:51 AM
This item will now close Tuesday 10/26 at 11:59pm US Pacific Time, one week before the election.

UMBS Go Blue
11-03-2010, 04:38 PM
Boxer pulled away in the final week - 9.8% margin with 93% reporting.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/california