2010 US Politics - U.S. Senate, Nevada

[UMBS Go Blue]

What will be the result of the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Nevada?

This bet will remain open until November 1, although odds will be adjusted periodically to reflect campaign developments. You may make multiple bets, but, for example, if you make a bet on October 1 on a 2/1 outcome, and, on October 15, the odds for that outcome are changed to 15/1, then your original October 1 bet will still reflect the original October 1 odds: 2/1.

As for a particular outcome, "winning by 2.00%," for example, means the following:

Candidate A - 51.00%
Candidate B - 49.00%
===================
Margin of Victory - 2.00%

So "winning by 2.00%" refers to the margin of victory.

ETA: It might also be a fun exercise, in retrospect, to track how the odds will have changed over the course of the campaign. So, as of today (Sep 23) the starting odds are:

Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by >= 4.00% - 8/1
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by 2.00% - 3.99% - 2/1
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by 0.00% - 1.99% - 3/4 F
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by 0.00% - 1.99% - 3/4 F
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by 2.00% - 3.99% - 2/1
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by >= 4.0% - 8/1

[Kasey]

Since it's my home state, I'll bet on it. But I don't want either of the #@#*()$#ers to win...

[UMBS Go Blue]

Updated odds
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by >= 4.00% - 4/1
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by 2.00% - 3.99% - 3/4 F
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by 0.00% - 1.99% - 3/4 F
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by 0.00% - 1.99% - 2/1
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by 2.00% - 3.99% - 4/1
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by >= 4.0% - 10/1

[UMBS Go Blue]

A new poll shows Angle ahead by 3 points at 49% - closing in on the magic 50% mark of inevitability - and Real Clear Politics says that if Reid can't seal the deal now, it is likely that undecideds will break towards Angle, giving her the edge.

Updating odds to show a dead heat.

Outcome Odds Total Bets Total Staked Stake
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by >= 4.00% 8/1
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by 2.00% - 3.99% 2/1
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by 0.00% - 1.99% 1/1 F
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by 0.00% - 1.99% 1/1 F
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by 2.00% - 3.99% 3/1
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by >= 4.0% 2/1

[UMBS Go Blue]

Less than 3 weeks to go; revised odds:
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by >= 4.00% 15/1
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by 2.00% - 3.99% 5/1
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by 0.00% - 1.99% 2/1
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by 0.00% - 1.99% 1/1 F
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by 2.00% - 3.99% 1/1 F
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by >= 4.0% 2/1

[UMBS Go Blue]

This item will now close Tuesday 10/26 at 11:59pm US Pacific Time, one week before the election.

Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by >= 4.00% 15/1
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by 2.00% - 3.99% 5/1
Reid (D) beats Angle (R) by 0.00% - 1.99% 2/1
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by 0.00% - 1.99% 3/4 F
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by 2.00% - 3.99% 3/4 F
Angle (R) beats Reid (D) by >= 4.0% 2/1

[UMBS Go Blue]

The winning margin for Harry Reid is 5.6% (http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/nevada). Looks like a little cattle herding (http://www.lvrj.com/news/gop-charges-voter-intimidation-106581558.html) didn't hurt either. ;)