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View Full Version : Does Mirai Nagasu have the talent to catch/pass Mao or Yu Na?



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chipso1
07-31-2010, 03:41 AM
Did you read what I wrote? I said aside from Kim, Asada, Rochette, Ando and Lepisto, Ashley was receiving some of the highest PCS scores on the GP series. The same can be said for Alissa. Neither are ever going to match Kim, Asada or Rochette on PCS, but it's pretty clear that when they skate well, they get rewarded for their skating skills, choreography, interpretation and style.

I fully expect Mirai's PCS to be significantly higher this season on the GP than it was last season, but she (like everyone else) is still going to need to skate well.

ETA: ^ChibiChibi, I agree that Mirai staying injury-free is going to be the key factor for her this season. She's proven to be a bit "breakable" the past few seasons, and I hope her current injury isn't too serious.

RD
07-31-2010, 04:11 AM
I think what Mirai needs to do at this point is to stay healthy and injury-free.

This, and:

To answer the thread title, I think she has the talent to CHALLENGE Asada, not sure about Kim though, especially since the latter may not even be a factor past this season.

The Olympics, as well as the Worlds SP, showed that when she's on, she can play with the big boys (girls). But when she's off, barely top 10 material if even that.

The challenge for Nagasu, besides health, is going to be consistency and nerves. She fell victim to them at the Worlds FS. I thought she showed incredible mental toughness in situations like her '09 Nationals FS, but am not sure what happened in Torino. I predict the next season or two will be her exploration as she tries to establish herself as one of the best. This "exploration" I speak of can include Olympic-like performances as well as Worlds-like ones. But if she ever finds herself nervous to the point of being paralyzed, if she is capable of digging deep like she did that night in Cleveland, you bet she'll be a force to be reckoned with. The question we really should be asking is, is she willing to TRY? Because the past couple performances I've seen her do- including the one I saw live- she sure wasn't...and, like I said in another thread, sport waits for no one, so while she goes through this phase, you bet up-and-comers from the US and Russia will try to give her (and Asada) a run for their money.

RumbleFish
07-31-2010, 05:07 AM
Mirai showed during last year's Worlds SP that she is capable of out-skating Asada. She was better in most of her elements, and it also helped that Asada's triple axel got dinged for under rotation as usual.

With the new rules however, Asada will likely get an huge edge by receiving at least intermediate points for triple axels. Even with underrotations, she will rack up 6 points in base value which is same as a clean triple lutz, and possibly a lot more if axels are rotated. If she performs it 3 times it could add up to lots of points.

IMO, Miari doesn't stand a chance this year.

pinky166
07-31-2010, 01:59 PM
Mirai showed during last year's Worlds SP that she is capable of out-skating Asada. She was better in most of her elements, and it also helped that Asada's triple axel got dinged for under rotation as usual.

With the new rules however, Asada will likely get an huge edge by receiving at least intermediate points for triple axels. Even with underrotations, she will rack up 6 points in base value which is same as a clean triple lutz, and possibly a lot more if axels are rotated. If she performs it 3 times it could add up to lots of points.

IMO, Miari doesn't stand a chance this year.

If Mao skates like she did in last year's GP season then Mirai definitely does stand a chance. Also, I think this will be a rebuilding year for Mao, she will work a lot on her jump technique and stuff, so she might not be the most on with her jumps. But who knows, I really don't think she's that much better than Mirai at this point though, a little better yes, but not by much. IMO the gap between Kim and Asada is greater than the gap between Asada and Nagasu at this point, and yet Asada was still able to beat Kim at Worlds. Anything can happen.

I think consistency is key for Mirai, and she doesn't even need to always skate perfectly clean, what's more important is that she avoids the kinds of near meltdowns she's had in the past. I tend to think this is possible, because remember Miki Ando pre 2007? She was a great talent but young and inconsistent. Since she won worlds in 2007, she's been pretty consistent, she doesn't always skate great but she always manages to skate well enough to place well at Worlds, win medals on the GP and qualify for the final, avoid bombing Japanese Nationals, etc. I mean this past season Miki wasn't even at her best/most exciting, and she still managed to earn 2 GP golds, silver at the GPF, 4th at Japanese Nationals when she already had her Olympic spot reserved, 5th at the Olympics, 4th at Worlds. That's pretty good and shows great consistency and the ability to control nerves. I think for Mirai this will come will age and experience, as that appears to be what did it for Ando.

briancoogaert
07-31-2010, 02:30 PM
Mirai is very good, and I'm sure she can beat Mao Asada. Not sure about YuNa Kim, because of her big GOE.

miki88
07-31-2010, 02:37 PM
I mean this past season Miki wasn't even at her best/most exciting, and she still managed to earn 2 GP golds, silver at the GPF, 4th at Japanese Nationals when she already had her Olympic spot reserved, 5th at the Olympics, 4th at Worlds. That's pretty good and shows great consistency and the ability to control nerves. I think for Mirai this will come will age and experience, as that appears to be what did it for Ando.

She managed to earn them but she was also helped a lot by her competitors faltering during the GP series. I sympathize with Miki because I feel the only way the judges will favor her is when her competitors make mistakes. But if the others skate well, she will be sidelined as evidenced at the Olympics. This is not what I wish for Mirai's career.

pinky166
07-31-2010, 02:56 PM
She managed to earn them but she was also helped a lot by her competitors faltering during the GP series. I sympathize with Miki because I feel the only way the judges will favor her is when her competitors make mistakes. But if the others skate well, she will be sidelined as evidenced at the Olympics. This is not what I wish for Mirai's career.

I guess but Miki's consistently good results are worth honoring. Ever since 2006, she's not one to meltdown in competition. I also feel that if Miki skated like she did in practice in competition, then she wouldn't always be sidelined, she is fantastic in practice and then becomes a bit too reserved in competition.

museksk8r
07-31-2010, 04:46 PM
Ever since 2006, she's not one to meltdown in competition. I also feel that if Miki skated like she did in practice in competition, then she wouldn't always be sidelined, she is fantastic in practice and then becomes a bit too reserved in competition.

2006-2007 season GPF (she was ranked last in the LP) and 2007 NHK Trophy (7th in the LP with a performance marred by many falls and downgraded jumps) were meltdowns for Miki I think. She also finished last at the 2008-2009 season GPF. I would also consider her SP at this year's Worlds to be a meltdown. She of course was injured at 2008 Worlds and wasn't able to complete her LP. When Miki is on, she's really on, but when she's off, she's really off.

olympic
07-31-2010, 05:35 PM
Characteristics of Skating Skills:

Balance and rhythmic knee action and precision of foot and placement
Flow and effortless glide
Cleanness and sureness of deep edges, steps and turns
Power/energy and acceleration
Mastery of multi directional skating
Mastery of one foot skating


If the judges were to "deduct" from Ashley's PCS due to her jump issues, it would likely be seen in the Performance/Execution category, not the Skating Skills category. There's nothing wrong with Ashley's skating skills.

Wouldn't faulty jumping affect any of the above? I mean if a jump is faulty, wouldn't it affect precision of foot and placement? flow? glide? just curious.

smarts1
08-01-2010, 02:09 AM
2006-2007 season GPF (she was ranked last in the LP) and 2007 NHK Trophy (7th in the LP with a performance marred by many falls and downgraded jumps) were meltdowns for Miki I think. She also finished last at the 2008-2009 season GPF. I would also consider her SP at this year's Worlds to be a meltdown. She of course was injured at 2008 Worlds and wasn't able to complete her LP. When Miki is on, she's really on, but when she's off, she's really off.

The thing about 2006 GPF was that Miki had the stomach flu and thus popped more than half her jumps.

We all know what happened to Miki in 2007-08...

smarts1
08-01-2010, 02:21 AM
Yes but all the top competitors have PCS of near or above 30 for SP and 60 for LP. Ashley may have PCS comparable to Flatt and Czisny now, but her PCS are still quite a bit lower than what Kim, Asada, Rochette, Ando, Lepisto, an on Carolina, and now Mirai regularly receive. Further, Czisny is a tier 2 skater and Flatt is only a tier 1 skater because of her dependebly high TES which make up for her PCS which are significantly lower than the top guns (the same can be said of Akiko Suzuki).

To be competitive with the best, Ashley needs to either find a way to boost her PCS or become extremely consistent with her jumps and start doing 3-3s in competition to raise her TES enough to make up for her lower PCS (which likely would also result in higher PCS). This makes sense if you think about it, I mean Lepisto scored 114 for her double filled FS at Worlds, but that was because she got 60+ for TES. For Ashley to score 114 now, it would mean she'd need a TES score of 60+ which is quite hard to receive, because her PCS are only going to be mid 50s.

The scores that Laura Lepisto get are a joke. Please don't use her as an example...

Anyway, I think that she's made the right stepping stone this season--and that was making the GPF and medalling at both her GP events. What she'll have to do is skate more consistent SP (that's always seemed to be her nemesis) and make a couple of World teams and do well there to increase her PCS.

pinky166
08-01-2010, 02:29 AM
The scores that Laura Lepisto get are a joke. Please don't use her as an example...

Anyway, I think that she's made the right stepping stone this season--and that was making the GPF and medalling at both her GP events. What she'll have to do is skate more consistent SP (that's always seemed to be her nemesis) and make a couple of World teams and do well there to increase her PCS.

Her PCS must be so high for a reason, she's the reigning world bronze medalist, so I don't think she's a joke, at this point Ashley could only dream of being the world bronze medalist....


But anyways, back to Mirai, she put herself on the map this season so all she has to do is maintain that level and she should continue to get high scores. Improvement would be great but more importantly she has to make sure she doesn't regress in terms of consistency and URs - basically she can't afford to start skating all her programs like she did in her worlds FS.

oleada
08-01-2010, 02:30 AM
Laura's PCS are so high because she has excellent speed and skating skills, decent musicality and difficult choreography and transitions. It's not a "joke".

miki88
08-01-2010, 02:38 AM
Laura's PCS are so high because she has excellent speed and skating skills, decent musicality and difficult choreography and transitions. It's not a "joke".

It would have been better if she completed more jumps at Worlds. :slinkaway

pinky166
08-01-2010, 09:19 AM
It would have been better if she completed more jumps at Worlds. :slinkaway

It's not her fault Worlds was a splatfest and that the queen of figure skating who won the FS completely botched two jumping passes during it, and the winner after the SP had a mini-meltdown in the FS, and that one of the few skaters who skated well in the FS was too far behind after skating a craptacular SP to manage to medal....