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View Full Version : Wagner Just Misses Out on Olympic Dream



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pinky166
06-02-2010, 09:22 PM
I would have to guess that if Ashley had made the podium at the GPF, she would have been spotted the 4 points she needed to make the team.

But I will never know.

Maybe....but this year's GPF for the ladies was awful. Joannie had a complete meltdown, Alena had that craptacular FS, Miki was skating so cautiously and only attempted 5 triples in her FS, and Yuna had major errors in both her SP and FS and still won. Only Akiko and Ashley skated well at that event, and for Ashley, it still wasn't enough to medal despite the weak performances of others.

UGG
06-02-2010, 09:30 PM
I'm not really seeing how Ashley's big mouth cost her an Olympic spot. When I heard her speaking about the Olympics in interviews, she seemed determined but also understood that she had a lot of competition. Not to make excuses, but I think part of her problem might have been that a lot of figure skating fans and bloggers said that she was the best bet for the team. She let the pressure and desire to skate at the Olympics get to her.

I dont think it cost her a spot on the team, but it made her look like she has an ego. She said in an interview she had an advantage over the other competitors because she made it to the GPF (the event had not taken place yet. What if she fell all over the place and place 6th?) , and she also said that she hoped her experience at the Olympics turned out to be the same as Tara and Sarah and that you cannot count out underdogs. Uhhh you were not even on the team yet honey.

kwanfan1818
06-02-2010, 09:42 PM
Maybe....but this year's GPF for the ladies was awful. Joannie had a complete meltdown, Alena had that craptacular FS, Miki was skating so cautiously and only attempted 5 triples in her FS, and Yuna had major errors in both her SP and FS and still won. Only Akiko and Ashley skated well at that event, and for Ashley, it still wasn't enough to medal despite the weak performances of others.
On the other hand, in international competition that fall on the GP circuit, Nagasu scored 155.38 (CoC) and 156.83 (SC), while Wagner scored 163.97 (RC), 155.99 (NHK), and 162.07 (GPF). There was little precedent for Nagasu to score 190+ in seniors before the Olympics.

I think Wagner drank the Koolaid and thought that USFS was being serious about taking international competition into consideration for the Olympic spots. I wonder if Nagasu had fallen out of jumps instead of under-rotating them and the subsequent wuz-robbing at US Nats whether Wagner would have had a better chance.

Wagner's SP was one of the best-choreographed shorts I've ever seen, and she did not give up attacking the program after the fall on the 3Lz.

RD
06-03-2010, 12:44 AM
I think Wagner drank the Koolaid and thought that USFS was being serious about taking international competition into consideration for the Olympic spots. I wonder if Nagasu had fallen out of jumps instead of under-rotating them and the subsequent wuz-robbing at US Nats whether Wagner would have had a better chance.

I think she knew very well that Nationals would be the deciding factor. After Cohen's scores came up, a very excited Wagner was shown (I forget whether she was holding up a finger as to signal "1 to go" or what). She had to rely on (major) mistakes from Flatt and Nagasu, which didn't come. So she missed the team, of course she's going to be disappointed. I don't see anything wrong with what she did, but I will say that it's HIGHLY unlikely that Wagner would have done as well as 4th in Vancouver anyway, even if she nailed both programs.

Next season appears to be the fork in the road for many of these US skaters. I think it will determine if we can rely on Nagasu & Flatt, whether Wagner will continue to be a factor, whether Zhang and Czisny are in the picture any more, and whether Gao and the up-and-comers can make their mark.

pinky166
06-03-2010, 02:10 AM
On the other hand, in international competition that fall on the GP circuit, Nagasu scored 155.38 (CoC) and 156.83 (SC), while Wagner scored 163.97 (RC), 155.99 (NHK), and 162.07 (GPF). There was little precedent for Nagasu to score 190+ in seniors before the Olympics.

I think Wagner drank the Koolaid and thought that USFS was being serious about taking international competition into consideration for the Olympic spots. I wonder if Nagasu had fallen out of jumps instead of under-rotating them and the subsequent wuz-robbing at US Nats whether Wagner would have had a better chance.

Wagner's SP was one of the best-choreographed shorts I've ever seen, and she did not give up attacking the program after the fall on the 3Lz.

I think everyone agrees that Mirai was grossly underscored in both the SP and LP at Skate Canada. At CoC, she led after the SP and had a messy FS so the scores were more deserved, but it was also her first competition of the season. Ashley skated well at both her GP events, and her scores were only slightly higher than those of Mirai's.

Also what we saw in international competition this season - Mirai at Olympics and Worlds finally became highly regarded by the judges and started getting the scores she deserved all along. Rachael on the other hand got similar scores to what she had been getting all season and the season before (her SP at the Olympics was significantly higher than usual but that was because she did the 3f-3t she missed at CoC, SA, and Worlds last year). My guess is that Ashley would have fared more like Rachael had she gone to the Olympics and Worlds, I very highly doubt she would have come in 4th and in the case of Worlds, had Ashley come in 7th that would have been a great accomplishment she likely would be very excited about, whereas for Mirai the 7th place finish was a disappointment. Looking at the Worlds scores, had Ashley scored her usual high 150s low 160s, she would have placed between 10th and 12th at this year's World, lower than both Nagasu and Flatt who both had sub-par performances.

Marco
06-03-2010, 03:08 AM
If I was cynical, I would say the USFSA doesn't have to promote or politik anybody. They just tweek the PCS and they can make anybody win. Besides, I think they learned their lesson with Alissa last year. All they can do is let the skaters skate. Trying to decide the National winners ahead of time just doesn't work.

Of course you weren't cynical. You believed all that crap about Zhang's jumping improvements. :P

jlai
06-03-2010, 03:13 AM
Their shot not to be taken away by a GPF medalist? When I hear sentiment like this I want to roll my eyes.

I was speaking from the athletes' pov. Had the gpf medalists automatically qualified there would have been only 1 shot left in Spokane. Which competitor wants that, other than the two who would have got picked?


As for people saying they know what all the athletes want? :lol: Unless I see a scientific poll conducted and results published, all this is speculation at best.

Well, apparently, if this is not what the USFSA members want the rules would have been changed already. BTW, are you a member? You can also get involved and vote for a rule change if you don't like it. :P

When it's all said and done, I don't see how fans who aren't part of an organization think they know better than the skaters and coaches who are directly involved as to what's best.

Marco
06-03-2010, 03:13 AM
Maybe....but this year's GPF for the ladies was awful. Joannie had a complete meltdown, Alena had that craptacular FS, Miki was skating so cautiously and only attempted 5 triples in her FS, and Yuna had major errors in both her SP and FS and still won. Only Akiko and Ashley skated well at that event, and for Ashley, it still wasn't enough to medal despite the weak performances of others.

You do realise Ashley is still a notch or two below Yuna, Ando and Rochette. In terms of reputation.

Ando's PCS was ridiculous for what she put out there. I would give Suzuki and Ashley higher PCS, at least on some categories. I blame the judges.

RD
06-03-2010, 03:18 AM
...in the case of Worlds, had Ashley come in 7th that would have been a great accomplishment she likely would be very excited about, whereas for Mirai the 7th place finish was a disappointment. Looking at the Worlds scores, had Ashley scored her usual high 150s low 160s, she would have placed between 10th and 12th at this year's World, lower than both Nagasu and Flatt who both had sub-par performances.

Ouch. Probably says it all about how far she'll get internationally...if Nagasu can keep her nerves under control when she's in the lead, she's basically our only hope at getting back on the world podium. Everyone else really seems far gone at this point, unfortunately...either too young or not quite good enough...

Then again, it's looking more and more like one really can't (directly) compare scores from one event to another because the judges are so freaking inconsistent from event to event...


Of course you weren't cynical. You believed all that crap about Zhang's jumping improvements. :P

sorry but this is :lol:

Then again, at this point, until video surfaces, who knows.

kwanfan1818
06-03-2010, 04:16 AM
I think everyone agrees that Mirai was grossly underscored in both the SP and LP at Skate Canada.
I was at Skate Canada, and I didn't think Nagasu deserved a point more than she got.


At CoC, she led after the SP and had a messy FS so the scores were more deserved, but it was also her first competition of the season. Ashley skated well at both her GP events, and her scores were only slightly higher than those of Mirai's.
In two of three GP events Wagner scored more than Nagasu's highest GP score and by a wider margin than Nagasu beat Wagner at US Nationals.


Also what we saw in international competition this season - Mirai at Olympics and Worlds finally became highly regarded by the judges and started getting the scores she deserved all along.
I disagree here, too: I was at Vancouver, and the quality of her skating was significantly better than any time I saw Nagasu live in the last three years; she didn't deserve nearly those scores at earlier competitions.

How exactly did the US judges know that international judges would reward her as highly as they did, i.e, ~ two points more than at US Nationals, when she had never come close in the past, and why wouldn't they have thought that international judges would not reward Wagner the same way, i.e., almost 185 points?

pinky166
06-03-2010, 04:58 AM
I was at Skate Canada, and I didn't think Nagasu deserved a point more than she got.


In two of three GP events Wagner scored more than Nagasu's highest GP score and by a wider margin than Nagasu beat Wagner at US Nationals.


I disagree here, too: I was at Vancouver, and the quality of her skating was significantly better than any time I saw Nagasu live in the last three years; she didn't deserve nearly those scores at earlier competitions.

How exactly did the US judges know that international judges would reward her as highly as they did, i.e, ~ two points more than at US Nationals, when she had never come close in the past, and why wouldn't they have thought that international judges would not reward Wagner the same way, i.e., almost 185 points?

In regards to Skate Canada, I meant in comparison to the other skaters' scores, Joannie was way overscored and didn't skate that great, and Lepisto had a FS with 2 clean triples and Alissa splated twice and they both beat Mirai. Mirai had a very decent FS while Czisny and Lepisto had very weak ones so Mirai should have gotten higher scores than those two, even if she only deserved 100, the other two deserved less than 100.

My guess is that Nagasu's superior quality was apparent at nationals and that's why she did so well. I mean, scoring 118 with only 3 triples ratified is quite an impressive feat. If the US judges could tell that she had progressed a lot, they probably knew that this would be noted by international judges.

Also, she had outscored Wagner in the SP this season, her 62+ at CoC was significantly higher than any of Ashley's SPs this season (Ashley's NHK SP was higher than Mirai's SC SP but by 3/10 of a point - and that was Ashley's highest SP score of the season and Mirai's lowest).

The other thing is that Mirai had not skated a really solid LP before nationals, while Ashley had had 3 solid LPs in her grand prix events, and yet her scores were not all that strong.

A final thing, Mirai has gotten huge scores in the past. Remember 08 nationals? She got a 70+ in the SP there and then a 120+ in the FS, she won all her JGP events including the final and medaled at Jr Worlds twice, winning the SP both times. She had an off year last year because of the growth spurt but the USFSA knows that when she skates well she is well received by the international judges based on her good results before the growthspurt. Ashley has never gotten huge scores from international judges and also, her nationals FS did have a fair amount of errors, it beat Mirai's because Mirai lost 10-15 points in downgrades, but Ashly got credit for all her triples and was still 8 points off of Rachael's score, and Rachael wasn't even entirely clean and also slow and boring. If Mirai can beat Ashley at nationals with all those downgrades, it means Mirai is the better skater.

Coco
06-03-2010, 05:56 AM
Pinky - Mirai barely covered more than 1/2 the ice rink in her LP at Skate Canada. I don't think she was underscored there. A couple of other skaters may have been overscored, but that doesn't really factor into a Wagner vs. Mirai comparison.

briancoogaert
06-03-2010, 09:25 AM
I really like the actual US team : Mirai, Rachael and Ashley.
I just hope to see them all at Worlds.

Polymer Bob
06-03-2010, 01:24 PM
I know I am in the minority here, but I feel the Olympic scores were inflated. And that is rare for an ISU judged event. As much as I like Mirai and Rachael, I don't think we should look at Olympic scores and think this is how they will score in the future.

Eggplant
06-03-2010, 05:16 PM
The long program of her life? Seriously? That's funny...I seem to remember lots of two-footed jumps and sloppy skating. She stepped up the energy and came back from a rough short, but beyond that, please.

I forgot that apparently she placed above Mirai in the long program. THAT is almost as much of a travesty as Rachael winning the title of Mirai.

With that said, obviously it sucked hard core for her to win the bronze but be left out of the Olympics since we only had two spots. Anyone would be devastated. Her placement was entirely deserved, though, and I don't think she did anything at Nationals to make a convincing case that she belonged at the Olympics.

I still remember her quotes from last fall when she was all pumped up over her GP performances....she alluded to the fact that she thought she could end up a surprise winner at the Olympics. OMG! :lol: Talk about deluded.

I know you have to have somewhat of an ego or truly believe you are the best to make it in an elite sport, but I still think it was ridiculous that she really thought she should be placed on the Olympic team ahead of Mirai.

Granted, I'd rather watch Ashley skate than Rachael any day. I will be happy for Ashley if she (legitimately, non-two-footedly) kicks some butt next year. But I definitely do think the girl has an ego problem. She reminds me of Tara Lipinski.