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shine
10-28-2010, 07:17 AM
Remember the men do 2 programs. Try and estimate what Takahashi and Abbott would score over 2 programs combined if they went clean. Is the difference close to 20 points? If so you have your answer (I said 3 falls, not 4). Keep in mind in the short program alone a clean Takahashi will already far outscore a clean Abbott and carry a big points spread. It isnt just one program the men are skating. And like I said in the post above just look at the short program of Worlds last year to get a perspective how a clean Abbott stacks up against a clean so and so. The long program isnt going to miracelously turn out a whole lot better in that unlikely scenario, only a bit at best.
Sorry, figure skating judges may suck at times, but they don't suck THAT much to think that Takahashi's skating gives him a 3 fall advantage over Abbott's. Takahashi as the reigning world champ probably has the momentum right now and has gained the permanent 8-in-PCS-unless-he-falls-3-times status, but it doesn't mean Abbott can't turn his scores it around with a few great skates.

judgejudy27
10-28-2010, 07:22 AM
Last year at Worlds the top 6 men skated cleanly in the short program and these were the standings:

1 Daisuke TAKAHASHI JPN 89.30
2 Patrick CHAN CAN 87.80
3 Brian JOUBERT FRA 87.70
4 Takahiko KOZUKA JPN 84.20
5 Michal BREZINA CZE 81.75
6 Jeremy ABBOTT USA 81.05

A clean Abbott was adrift of a clean Takahashi by over 8 points (that is already a fall and a half about of points). The long program is approximately double the points so if we did a rough estimate it would be another 16 points for 24 points total difference between the two. Even if you believe Abbot would compare more favorably in the long then it would still be about 12 points difference in the long probably, add that to 8 in the short, and still atleast 20 points. And if a clean Takahashi is atleast 20 points better than a clean Abbott over 2 programs (and all indications are he is) yes he could probably fall 3 times and still beat a clean Abbott overall. Not that Abbott would ever skate cleanly over 2 programs anyhow.

A clean Abbott was beaten by a clean Brezina and by a clean Chan by about 6 points in the short program of last years Worlds. I am afraid some of you have an unrealistic view how Abbott stacks up on the World scene. He may have beaten Evan at the last 2 Nationals but he is no Evan.

And his PCS from his opening Grand Prix event only further show that the judges dont consider him even in the same league as people like Takahashi.

dinakt
10-28-2010, 07:28 AM
It is pretty clear based on his career, not on one GP event. 24 years old now and only one top 10 finish at Worlds (a 5th at a poorly skated watered down post Olympic Worlds). And furthermore the short program of last years Worlds puts into perspective where he fits in even in the hypothetically of everyone skating cleanly.

Abbott is 25 but it's beyond the point.
His scoring at Worlds last year was heavily influenced by his bombing at the Olympics. He is consistently punished for being inconsistent. Earlier last year the judges were giving him much better PCS.
He has a tough climb in front of him because judges are used to dumping him, but if he is consistent this year he has a chance to be judged fairly at Worlds.

jlai
10-28-2010, 05:29 PM
Frankly I don't think one or two gps can say much about what will happen at nationals or worlds, nor can the gp scores be used to predict what a different panel will do later--of course I'm not saying that a skater should bomb the gps, but most of the time skaters are just using these as "warmups". So as long as Jeremy and Rippon don't bomb they are okay.

The gp setup is heavily influenced by the isu ranking, pitting two seeded skaters against each other. At worlds, they're competing against the entire pool of top skaters. The difference alone can make a big difference in scoring.

By the time world rolls around I doubt anyone will be remembering "remember so-and-so placed nth in the gp or placed 2nd at nationals?" but rather everyone will be remembering how the skaters will have done in 4CC and Euros. After all, the skater is as good as their last competition. So yeah, I don't think these early results tell much of anything. Now 4CC may be a more telling competition.

Back to the topic, I don't think the nationals is spoken for because of the same reasons. Can't wait till january!

museksk8r
10-28-2010, 06:24 PM
So judgejudy27 seriously thinks Takahashi with 4 falls would beat a performance like Abbott gave at 2010 US Nationals.

Someone seriously needs to lay off the crack pipe. The bandwagon mentality is in full force here. Rippon delivers a couple of strong performances since the 4CC event to the Japan Open event and the bandwagon hoppers are on his side, but heaven forbid, he once again fail to deliver at Nationals as he has done the past couple of seasons and doesn't win or doesn't medal (I know not likely), he'll lose the support of these fair-weather fans. From following judgejudy27's posts, he was an Abbott supporter after 2010 Nationals when he toppled Evan Lysacek and now he can't stop hating on him. Interesting, isn't it?

museksk8r
10-28-2010, 06:36 PM
Abbott is 25 but it's beyond the point.
His scoring at Worlds last year was heavily influenced by his bombing at the Olympics. He is consistently punished for being inconsistent. Earlier last year the judges were giving him much better PCS.
He has a tough climb in front of him because judges are used to dumping him, but if he is consistent this year he has a chance to be judged fairly at Worlds.

The judges did this same thing to Rochette after 2006 Worlds when she didn't live up to expectations and a World medal. From 2006 to Worlds 2008, she didn't get the PCS many thought she deserved. It wasn't until she began establishing herself as one who can deliver consistent programs that she started getting PCS that were more in line with what the top skaters were receiving.

Squibble
10-28-2010, 06:40 PM
Someone seriously needs to lay off the crack pipe. The bandwagon mentality is in full force here. Rippon delivers a couple of strong performances since the 4CC event to the Japan Open event and the bandwagon hoppers are on his side, but heaven forbid, he once again fail to deliver at Nationals as he has done the past couple of seasons and doesn't win or doesn't medal (I know not likely), he'll lose the support of these fair-weather fans. From following judgejudy27's posts, he was an Abbott supporter after 2010 Nationals when he toppled Evan Lysacek and now he can't stop hating on him. Interesting, isn't it?


The judges did this same thing to Rochette after 2006 Worlds when she didn't live up to expectations and a World medal. From 2006 to Worlds 2008, she didn't get the PCS many thought she deserved. It wasn't until she began establishing herself as one who can deliver consistent programs that she started getting PCS that were more in line with what the top skaters were receiving.

Which reminds me.... judgejudy27 confidently posted his 2010 Olympic medal predictions in May 2008. Does someone with access to the Archives want to go back and see how he did?

:watch:

judgejudy27
10-29-2010, 02:20 AM
Someone seriously needs to lay off the crack pipe. The bandwagon mentality is in full force here. Rippon delivers a couple of strong performances since the 4CC event to the Japan Open event and the bandwagon hoppers are on his side, but heaven forbid, he once again fail to deliver at Nationals as he has done the past couple of seasons and doesn't win or doesn't medal (I know not likely), he'll lose the support of these fair-weather fans. From following judgejudy27's posts, he was an Abbott supporter after 2010 Nationals when he toppled Evan Lysacek and now he can't stop hating on him. Interesting, isn't it?

I was never on the Abbott bandwagon. I like his skating but have always found him way overhyped, which this thread alone is proof of. Some of the skaters I truly dont like such as Evan, Suguri, Ando, and Sale & Pelletier, atleast produce results which you cant deny. I admit I am not an Evan fan but I also thought it was crazy anyone was proclaiming Abbott the top U.S man just because he won Nationals when Evan's international results were so far superior.

dinakt
10-29-2010, 03:20 AM
Would anybody know without digging through statistics if Dornbush and Messing are still age- eligible for Junior Worlds? ( I know that they are in the last year of Junior circuit) Thanks!

jlai
10-29-2010, 03:24 AM
Dornbush and Messing - Age eligible

dinakt
10-29-2010, 03:25 AM
Thank you!

Sylvia
10-29-2010, 03:32 AM
Dornbush and Messing - Age eligible
Yes, both are in their final season of ISU Junior eligibility. Armin Mahbanoozadeh as well.

BTW, I always considered this thread to be more about the lesser-known/up-and-coming U.S. Senior men rather than for :argue: over the big names. Just sayin' ...

RockTheTassel
10-29-2010, 03:49 AM
I admit I am not an Evan fan but I also thought it was crazy anyone was proclaiming Abbott the top U.S man just because he won Nationals when Evan's international results were so far superior.

From what I've read on this board, I think most believe that Evan is clearly a better competitor, but Jeremy is better when he is "on", such as at 2010 nationals. It depends on whether you're judging them both at their absolute best or by how they typically skate in competition. If we're judging by the former, I don't think it's crazy at all to call Jeremy the top US man.

dinakt
10-29-2010, 04:00 AM
Yes, both are in their final season of ISU Junior eligibility. Armin Mahbanoozadeh as well.

BTW, I always considered this thread to be more about the lesser-known/up-and-coming U.S. Senior men rather than for :argue: over the big names. Just sayin' ...

I was trying to calculate how many Men who just turned Senior would still be competing for Junior Worlds spots. Quite a few!
( Armin M, Dornbush, Messing, Farris, Brown; Aaron- though he stays in Juniors nationally. More?)

Sylvia
10-29-2010, 04:09 AM
I was trying to calculate how many Men who just turned Senior would still be competing for Junior Worlds spots. Quite a few!
( Armin M, Dornbush, Messing, Farris, Brown; Aaron- though he stays in Juniors nationally. More?)
Mahbanoozadeh (8th), Messing (9th) and Dornbush (11th) each had their Senior debut at Nationals last season. Along with Aaron, Alex Zahradnicek and Timothy Dolensky (1st year Jr.) are the 3 Junior men who competed on the JGP this fall. Zahradnicek and Dolensky are scheduled to compete Jr. at Easterns next month. Both Aaron and Zahradnicek are in their final season of ISU Junior age eligibility as well.

ETA: Max Aaron, Joshua Farris and Jason Brown are the 3 "who just turned Senior" skaters that will be vying for a 2011 Junior Worlds berth. Both Brown's and Farris' ISU age this season is 15, so they have 3 more years of ISU Junior age eligibility left starting in 2011-12.