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judgejudy27
10-27-2010, 07:12 PM
And did you say the same thing about Maria Butyrskaya, Shizuka Arakawa, and Miki Ando?

:watch:

Maria was 4th in only her 2nd Worlds so why would anyone have said that. Miki was 4th in her 1st Worlds so why would anyone have said that. Shizuka is a unique case.

newbatgirl
10-27-2010, 08:39 PM
I expect Rippon to win Nationals easily. It is pretty clear by now Abbott will never be a serious contender at the World level but he will probably be 2nd. 3rd place is wide open.

I think it is way too early in the season to say this definitively. Adam hasn't even had his first GP yet!

I think they are both in good shape mentally and physically now but it's a long time until Nationals. I love to see them both make the GPF, though.

Squibble
10-27-2010, 08:47 PM
Maria was 4th in only her 2nd Worlds so why would anyone have said that.

Butyrskaya didn't even reach the Worlds podium until she was 25 (bronze, fourth appearance, six years after her debut) and had a tendency to have appalling meltdowns (twenty-ninth at Worlds in 1993 and tenth at Skate America in 1997).


Miki was 4th in her 1st Worlds so why would anyone have said that.

Miki Ando (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-VCXCK9fD8) sure didn't look like a potential worldbeater the year before she won her championship.


Shizuka is a unique case.

A case is unique only until there's another one just like it.

If Abbott can deliver a short (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jljuph8ISAQ) and a long (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXS8x44z9Sk&feature=related) program like his performances at 2010 Nationals at Worlds, he's at least a contender and probably a winner. He was fifth at Worlds this year, and only nine points out of third place. Conquering his nerves isn't altogether out of the question, given that he's won Nationals twice and the Grand Prix Finals once. If Butyrskaya did it, so can he.

LilJen
10-27-2010, 09:21 PM
I expect Rippon to win Nationals easily. It is pretty clear by now Abbott will never be a serious contender at the World level but he will probably be 2nd. 3rd place is wide open.

Huh. I really like Rippon a lot, and I think he has a lot of wins ahead of him, but I still think that, overall, Jeremy is the better skater. Rippon STILL has those dang annoying crossovers, for one thing!

~tapdancer~
10-28-2010, 01:36 AM
I expect Rippon to win Nationals easily. It is pretty clear by now Abbott will never be a serious contender at the World level but he will probably be 2nd. 3rd place is wide open.
It's not "pretty clear" to me. :rolleyes:

Jenna
10-28-2010, 01:42 AM
I expect Rippon to win Nationals easily. It is pretty clear by now Abbott will never be a serious contender at the World level but he will probably be 2nd. 3rd place is wide open.

:confused: How is it "pretty clear" based on one GP event? Nationals is typically Jeremy's best event of the season. I expect an exciting competition.

RockTheTassel
10-28-2010, 01:43 AM
It's not "pretty clear" to me. :rolleyes:

Not to me either. After Jeremy's amazing skating at the last nationals, I think it's absurd that anyone would write him off. Especially since, much as I enjoy his skating, Adam hasn't exactly been great at senior nationals in the past.

jlai
10-28-2010, 03:26 AM
I think it's a close contest between the two. That said, I think whether who is first or second at nationals probably will matter little by the time world rolls around.

shine
10-28-2010, 06:43 AM
I expect Rippon to win Nationals easily. It is pretty clear by now Abbott will never be a serious contender at the World level but he will probably be 2nd. 3rd place is wide open.
:blah: Rippon is a good skater, but not even close.

judgejudy27
10-28-2010, 07:03 AM
If Abbott can deliver a short (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jljuph8ISAQ) and a long (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXS8x44z9Sk&feature=related) program like his performances at 2010 Nationals at Worlds, he's at least a contender and probably a winner.

Sure if Takahashi falls 3 times, Chan atleast 2 times, and Joubert, Kozuka, Oda, Brezina, Verner and Rippon all makes mistakes. :lol:

shine
10-28-2010, 07:05 AM
Sure if Takahashi falls 3 times, Chan atleast 2 times, and Joubert, Kozuka, Oda, Brezina, Verner and Rippon all makes mistakes. :lol:
:huh:WTH?

judgejudy27
10-28-2010, 07:06 AM
:confused: How is it "pretty clear" based on one GP event?

It is pretty clear based on his career, not on one GP event. 24 years old now and only one top 10 finish at Worlds (a 5th at a poorly skated watered down post Olympic Worlds). And furthermore the short program of last years Worlds puts into perspective where he fits in even in the hypothetically of everyone skating cleanly.

chipso1
10-28-2010, 07:08 AM
It is pretty clear based on his career, not on one GP event. 24 years old now and only one top 10 finish at Worlds (a 5th at a poorly skated watered down post Olympic Worlds).

Jeremy didn't even turn senior until he was 20, and then he was in the Lysacek/Weir shadow for a few years after that. His situation isn't comparable to Lysacek, Weir, Bradley or Rippon, all of whom began competing senior internationally in their teenage years.

shine
10-28-2010, 07:08 AM
So judgejudy27 seriously thinks Takahashi with 4 falls would beat a performance like Abbott gave at 2010 US Nationals.

judgejudy27
10-28-2010, 07:11 AM
Remember the men do 2 programs. Try and estimate what Takahashi and Abbott would score over 2 programs combined if they went clean. Is the difference close to 20 points? If so you have your answer (I said 3 falls, not 4). Keep in mind in the short program alone a clean Takahashi will already far outscore a clean Abbott and carry a big points spread. It isnt just one program the men are skating. And like I said in the post above just look at the short program of Worlds last year to get a perspective how a clean Abbott stacks up against a clean so and so. The long program isnt going to miracelously turn out a whole lot better in that unlikely scenario, only a bit at best.