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chipso1
11-30-2010, 02:30 AM
In conclusion, I think we can all agree that the ladies podium is wide, wide, wide open at Nationals this year. :) Nagasu, Czisny, Flatt, Gao, Wagner, Zawadzki, etc, etc...pick your poison! ;)

AliasJohnDoe
11-30-2010, 02:30 AM
I'd say a flawed 4 triple LP from Mirai and Alissa would beat a clean 6-7 triple Wagner and Flatt. Especially on spin/spiral +GOE points and PCS. Alissa alone gets +6GOE points advantage in the LP just on her spins/spirals(That's equals a 3lz or more than a 3t/2t combo).

RockTheTassel
11-30-2010, 02:34 AM
I'd say a flawed 4 triple LP from Mirai and Alissa would beat a clean 6-7 triple Wagner and Flatt. Especially on spin/spiral +GOE points and PCS. Alissa alone gets +6GOE points advantage in the LP just on her spins/spirals.

I don't know about Alissa and Ashley, but judging from last year's results, Mirai won't beat Rachael without clean, rotated triples (or even Ashley, since Mirai lost to her in the FS). I also question whether the judges would put headcase Alissa above reliable Rachael if they both skate clean.

chipso1
11-30-2010, 02:38 AM
I'd say a flawed 4 triple LP from Mirai and Alissa would beat a clean 6-7 triple Wagner and Flatt. Especially on spin/spiral +GOE points and PCS. Alissa alone gets +6GOE points advantage in the LP just on her spins/spirals(That's equals a 3lz or more than a 3t/2t combo).

Mirai and Alissa definitely have at least a 1 fall advantage over the rest of the field. I think a lot of it will come down to URs, and how closely the technical panel scrutinizes them. Mirai showed last year that she can fix her UR issues in a short amount of time, and they were already much improved this weekend than what they looked like at CoC. Alissa's jumps technique has also looked better this season; yes, she hasn't been the most consistent with her triples, but I think that's more due to nerves/mental lapses than technique.

If the tech panel is extra strict in Greensboro, Mirai and Alissa (and to some extent Ashley) may be in trouble.

smarts1
11-30-2010, 02:44 AM
Mirai and Alissa definitely have at least a 1 fall advantage over the rest of the field. I think a lot of it will come down to URs, and how closely the technical panel scrutinizes them. Mirai showed last year that she can fix her UR issues in a short amount of time, and they were already much improved this weekend than what they looked like at CoC. Alissa's jumps technique has also looked better this season; yes, she hasn't been the most consistent with her triples, but I think that's more due to nerves/mental lapses than technique.

If the tech panel is extra strict in Greensboro, Mirai and Alissa (and to some extent Ashley) may be in trouble.

Flatt also. She's not someone who is impervious to downgrades either. Only Gao has shown the ability to get fully around on her triples.

Jenna
11-30-2010, 02:53 AM
^^ That's true. Gao is not downgraded very often...probably the least out of this field.

burntBREAD
11-30-2010, 02:54 AM
Flatt also. She's not someone who is impervious to downgrades either. Only Gao has shown the ability to get fully around on her triples.

And Zawadzki, though the question remains whether she can stay on her feet when the pressure's on.

gkelly
11-30-2010, 02:56 AM
I will say that Mirai and Ashley consistent and clean will leave Rachael off the team.

In what areas is consistent Ashley superior to consistent Rachael? They seem to have similar strengths and weaknesses to me.

For whatever it's worth, this year's rules are more forgiving to small-to-moderate underrotations than in the past.

pinky166
11-30-2010, 03:20 AM
I don't know about Alissa and Ashley, but judging from last year's results, Mirai won't beat Rachael without clean, rotated triples (or even Ashley, since Mirai lost to her in the FS). I also question whether the judges would put headcase Alissa above reliable Rachael if they both skate clean.

I agree with this. The results last year weren't even close, Rachael beat Mirai by like 12 points in theFS, and that was with Mirai skating clean to the blind eye. I tend to think Mirai and Alissa will need more than 4 clean triples to hold off a clean 6-7 triple Rachael or Christina. Also, the judges at nationals last season had no problem giving Alissa 88 points for her FS and downgrading most of her jumps when she failed to perform well. Also, clean performances seem to have an impact on the audience and judges, they are exciting and impressive, whereas a program with even one fall can sometimes serve to take the life out of a performance - think Mao's FS from 08 Worlds or Dai's FS from the Olympics last season. So it really depends, if Mirai and/or Alissa make one big mistake that marrs an otherwise clean performance, even that could serve to put them behind a clean Rachael.

miki88
11-30-2010, 03:28 AM
I agree with this. The results last year weren't even close, Rachael beat Mirai by like 12 points in theFS, and that was with Mirai skating clean to the blind eye. I tend to think Mirai and Alissa will need more than 4 clean triples to hold off a clean 6-7 triple Rachael or Christina. Also, the judges at nationals last season had no problem giving Alissa 88 points for her FS and downgrading most of her jumps when she failed to perform well. Also, clean performances seem to have an impact on the audience and judges, they are exciting and impressive, whereas a program with even one fall can sometimes serve to take the life out of a performance - think Mao's FS from 08 Worlds or Dai's FS from the Olympics last season. So it really depends, if Mirai and/or Alissa make one big mistake that marrs an otherwise clean performance, even that could serve to put them behind a clean Rachael.

I definitely don't think those two cases are good examples because I didn't think the fall took away much from the performance. The judges certainly didn't think so either since they rewarded them well PCS wise.

smarts1
11-30-2010, 03:34 AM
In what areas is consistent Ashley superior to consistent Rachael? They seem to have similar strengths and weaknesses to me.

For whatever it's worth, this year's rules are more forgiving to small-to-moderate underrotations than in the past.

Pretty much everything... Bigger jumps, more speed, more transitions, better posture, better positions and spins, a more balletic quality on the ice, command and presence... And the list goes on.

We all know the only reason why Flatt has had so much success is because she is able to consistently land her jumps. Once Ashley decides to skate clean in both the SP and the LP (no two foots, no downgrades, no falls), she'll be a force to be reckoned with.

olympic
11-30-2010, 04:23 AM
In what areas is consistent Ashley superior to consistent Rachael? They seem to have similar strengths and weaknesses to me.

For whatever it's worth, this year's rules are more forgiving to small-to-moderate underrotations than in the past.

Ashley has better overall presence, posture, and more power in her skating for better speed and higher jumps, plus I would say that she has more flexibility in spins. Both are about even in musicality IMO.

Watch Ashley's 2008 NHK SP performance. Beautiful and a good indication of what she's capable of.

OTOH, Rachael usually only gets docked for occasional downgrades, has fixed her flutz, and plays CoP smartly - repeats the lutz and flip for example. Ashley gets docked for more - downgrades, 2 ft., falls, flutzing. So her superior skating skills can't make up for her deductions vs. Rachael and Rachael wins based on consistency and playing it smart.

AliasJohnDoe
11-30-2010, 05:16 AM
I not sure the judges will know what to do with a clean Zawadzki at Nationals. When she is on with her huge jumps, she is awesome and could place above a lot of the veterans on TES. She deserves +GOE on her jumps when landed well. And her spins are better than Flatt, Gao and maybe even Wagner. I wish she would have skated at least one competition close to clean so we had an idea of what she could actually score in seniors.

blade runner
11-30-2010, 05:24 AM
I not sure the judges will know what to do with a clean Zawadzki at Nationals. When she is on with her huge jumps, she is awesome and could place above a lot of the veterans on TES. She deserves +GOE on her jumps when landed well. And her spins are better than Flatt, Gao and maybe even Wagner. I wish she would have skated at least one competition close to clean so we had an idea of what she could actually score in seniors.

I think you have some good points JohnDoe. I still think Agnes is the girl to beat.
I believe the judges will know what to do if she skates clean, they will give her a gold medal.
If I recall the judges last year at nationals gave her all most a 170 points as a junior with a lot less content than she has now.

pinky166
11-30-2010, 05:34 AM
I think you have some good points JohnDoe. I still think Agnes is the girl to beat.
I believe the judges will know what to do if she skates clean, they will give her a gold medal.
If I recall the judges last year at nationals gave her all most a 170 points as a junior with a lot less content than she has now.

I could see Agnes winning gold, but only if others falter. I tend to think a clean Nagasu or Czisny, and maybe even Flatt or Wagner, would be placed ahead of a clean Agnes. I'm not really expecting any of them to skate totally clean though, except for maybe Rachael if her tendonitis is better by nationals.