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chipso1
11-22-2010, 03:21 AM
I was there. I got the impression that she was kind of phoning it in. This is not a criticism. It's just what it looked like to me.

I watched it on IceNetwork tonight, and it looked like an issue of timing and technique to me. Specifically on her loop and flip, which leads me to believe she's not 100 percent comfortable with her new technique yet (understandably) and reverted back to old habits when nervous. She tried to go for the triples but most of them weren't successful. If she had intentionally doubled most of her difficult jumps to be safe, then I would agree that she was phoning it in, but it actually did look like she was trying hard.

Regardless, I'm not worried by that one bad performance as long as she gets her head together for TEB and Nationals.

Marco
11-22-2010, 06:45 AM
Czisny has traditionally been performing better at the GPs than at Nationals. Unless I can see solid jumping technique (not just solid jumps) at TEB, I wouldn't put my hopes up just yet.

But I do love her new look and programs very much.

judgejudy27
11-22-2010, 10:44 AM
^

Czisny - I didn't know that Czisny bombed at Midwestern Sectionals :yikes:. Then, her back is against the wall and she'll need to deliver from now on IMO for the judges at Nats to consider her for top 2 and the Worlds team. I still expect to see her stronger and a factor, but she may not have a chance if 2 of Nagasu, Flatt and Wagner deliver at Nats.

Flatt - I think she's planning a 3-3 but has been hampered by injury, so her tech content should be there shortly.

Wagner - put herself back in the mix with her CoR programs. She really doesn't seem to get much respect internationally but I like her attack. If she could just hit everything at one time, it probably would help her breakthrough in the eyes of int'l. judges

I actually think if everyone skates well at Nationals Flatt will probably be left off the team this time around, despite having the best season of any U.S lady. The USFSA has never liked her much, and after last season they will be wanting to get Nagasu back to Worlds, Czisny has always been a favorite of the USFSA, and Wagner they probably would like to give a shot at it. And all her strong season still shows is her limited scoring potential even when she skates well. She cant even beat skaters like Kostner skating programs with junior content and making mistakes or new senior Murakami (who herself might not even make it to Worlds this year) making alot of mistakes.

pinky166
11-22-2010, 01:25 PM
I actually think if everyone skates well at Nationals Flatt will probably be left off the team this time around, despite having the best season of any U.S lady. The USFSA has never liked her much, and after last season they will be wanting to get Nagasu back to Worlds, Czisny has always been a favorite of the USFSA, and Wagner they probably would like to give a shot at it. And all her strong season still shows is her limited scoring potential even when she skates well. She cant even beat skaters like Kostner skating programs with junior content and making mistakes or new senior Murakami (who herself might not even make it to Worlds this year) making alot of mistakes.

Those were international judges though. I feel like the USFSA does like Rachael a lot, I mean, look at her monstrous scores from nationals last season! If they really didn't like her why in the world would they let her beat Mirai in such a controversial way? Flatt isn't a favorite among international judges, but among national judges, I'd argue she is.

After what Alissa's done at Worlds both times she's gone, I tend to think the USFSA would be very hesitant to let her win gold and silver at nationals unless she really earns it (ie landing at least 5 triples in the FS if others skate well). JMO but I don't think they will let her be 1st or 2nd with a 3 triple FS and then send her to Worlds because I think that's just asking for trouble.

If Ashley can stop 2 footing jumps and making dumb mistakes in the SP she should have a decent shot at making the team.

I still think Gao will finish 1st or 2nd and wow everyone like she did last year, only this year she'll get the PCS to be competitive. Especially if she comes into the event at JGPF champion or medalist, she will get attention.

Polymer Bob
11-22-2010, 01:32 PM
Just wondering aloud - Does anyone have any early predictions for Nats? -

I think it will break down into a mix of Czisny, Flatt, Wagner, Nagasu, and Gao as the top 5 credible challengers for the podium.

We could also get a few in-credible challengers as well.

olympic
11-22-2010, 03:27 PM
I actually think if everyone skates well at Nationals Flatt will probably be left off the team this time around, despite having the best season of any U.S lady. The USFSA has never liked her much, and after last season they will be wanting to get Nagasu back to Worlds, Czisny has always been a favorite of the USFSA, and Wagner they probably would like to give a shot at it. And all her strong season still shows is her limited scoring potential even when she skates well. She cant even beat skaters like Kostner skating programs with junior content and making mistakes or new senior Murakami (who herself might not even make it to Worlds this year) making alot of mistakes.

Well, I think most of all the USFSA has an eye on qualifying 3 ladies for 2012 [finally]. With that in mind, I think they understand that a steady, consistent Flatt would probably have the best chance of doing a strong finish at worlds and could easily finish top 2 at Nats. Hence, they will probably be more than happy to send her to Worlds.

Now, if Flatt uncharacteristically bombs and any 2 of Nagasu, Wagner, and Czisny [dare we dream] skate really well, then Flatt wouldn't make it, keeping with the general US rule that the top lady finishers go to Worlds [like someone upthread mentioned].

Flatt did win both LPs at her 2 GP series comps, despite no 3-3 and a nagging injury at SA, so I don't think her scoring has yet been maximized and yet she's scoring well.

Still it will be quite competitive this year: We have yet to see Nagasu at her best. Wagner with a fall at the CoR LP still scored only 1 pt. lower than clean Flatt and you can tell she's working hard on several aspects of her skating, Czisny with a fall is 5 pts. clear of a clean but no 3-3 Flatt in the LP [although it's a given that Czisny will fall at least once; not necessarily Rachael], and Gao continues to develop nicely but is still considered a junior.

Finally, if it comes down to who doesn't collapse under the pressure, as most tight competitions with several contenders do, that usually ends up meaning Flatt finishing at the top of the heap.


...I still think Gao will finish 1st or 2nd and wow everyone like she did last year, only this year she'll get the PCS to be competitive. Especially if she comes into the event at JGPF champion or medalist, she will get attention.

I love your enthusiasm for Gao, but I really don't think she'll finish top 2 at nats which will be the criteria for Worlds. She'd have to leap-frog over the majority of ladies ranked in front of her [Nagasu, Flatt, Wagner, Czisny]. I also think that as poorly as Zawadzki performed in the Sr. GP series, she does kick a$$ in the SP and you may see Gao down around 6th [or lower] after the SP if the 4 top ladies and Agnes perform well. Although, I do see her most likely being in the final group after the SP. Again, there's always a chance that Czisny will bomb but Gao would have to pass 2 more of an established Nagasu, consistent Flatt, and an emerging Wagner just to squeeze onto the team.

There's still a higher possibility of Gao being on the podium in 3d

pinky166
11-22-2010, 05:35 PM
I love your enthusiasm for Gao, but I really don't think she'll finish top 2 at nats which will be the criteria for Worlds. She'd have to leap-frog over the majority of ladies ranked in front of her [Nagasu, Flatt, Wagner, Czisny]. I also think that as poorly as Zawadzki performed in the Sr. GP series, she does kick a$$ in the SP and you may see Gao down around 6th [or lower] after the SP if the 4 top ladies and Agnes perform well. Although, I do see her most likely being in the final group after the SP. Again, there's always a chance that Czisny will bomb but Gao would have to pass 2 more of an established Nagasu, consistent Flatt, and an emerging Wagner just to squeeze onto the team.

There's still a higher possibility of Gao being on the podium in 3d


Christina scored 58+ for her SP in Graz, I highly doubt she will be out of the final group after the SP if she does her 3-3, considering that score she put up is higher than what all the other ladies have put up so far, excluding Nagasu who she basically tied with. Her SP is the better of her two programs and she may be one of the only ladies we see a 3-3 from in the SP, as Czisny doesn't have one, Flatt, Nagasu and Wagner attempt them but not consistently. Agnes does a 3-3 but it's only 3t-3t.

Also, remember 2008 nationals when the podium was all young girls coming out of juniors? The same thing could happen this year. Last year Gao's PCS at nationals were quite a bit higher than what she was getting on the JGP, so if that trend holds true this year, her PCS at nationals should be quite competitive to contend for the title.

Further, she's scored nearly 110 points for her junior LP, which doesn't have a spiral sequence, and in one competition she managed that with no 3-3 and only 2 combinations, and in the other she fell on her 2nd 3f. Essentially that means a clean Christina can score around 115 points for her junior LP internationally, so for her senior program at nationals, if she's clean that could mean 120+.

Her LP scores in junior are already comparable to Flatt and Wagner, and she's already put up a higher SP score than both of them. She's only really trailing Czisny at this point, and I sort of doubt Alissa will get 61 for PCS in the LP everytime, let alone skate that well every time, and if she doesn't, Gao can surpass her scores as well.

Mirai's still recovering and may not be fully back by nationals, I think there's a strong possibility either she or Alissa will not skate their best at nationals, and if that happens, the team will likely be whichever one does skate well accompanied by Gao or Flatt. Or if neither Nagasu or Czisny skate well, the team could be Wagner accompanied by Gao or Flatt.

As for Agnes, I think at this point she's proving to be pretty much a non-factor. She's put up pretty good scores in the SP but her LPs have been a mess all this season. If she can skate a good LP I think she has a shot at bronze, but I doubt she will be on the World Team this year.

I think the USFSA really wants to get 3 spots for the ladies back, and I think in order to try and do that the team will contain at least one consistent skater - ie Flatt or Gao, and potentially both. I don't think it would be in their best interest to send a team of Czisny/Nagasu, Nagasu/Wagner, Wagner/Czisny because you can't really rely on them. The only way I see one of those teams happening is if Mirai and Alissa skate well at TEB, and all three of those girls skate well at nationals. And when I say well, I mean really well, ie a 6-7 triple LP that Flatt and Gao are regularly able to crank out.

Also, if Rachael is still getting hit with downgrades come nationals that makes Christina's odds that much better. Flatt, Nagasu, Czisny are all prone to downgrades, and Wagner is too, on top of flutzing and 2-footing. Christina always rotates her jumps and that is a big advantage.

chipso1
11-22-2010, 05:44 PM
I really hope you're not setting Gao up for failure come Nationals, pinky. Your expectations that she's a lock for top 2 are a little high, IMO.

Gao has never competed senior internationally, and that could affect her stamina. She's been training her junior FS much more this season (as she did last season), and a lack of stamina combined with nerves likely contributed to her late-program errors at Nationals last season. She's going to have to be completely, 100 percent clean to be top 2 this year, and I just don't see that happening. :shuffle: I like Christina -- I really do -- but I'd rather she have time to develop as a skater and come back even more improved next year and ready to :kickass: on the SGP.

I still believe she'll be on the podium in 3rd or 4th though.

olympic
11-22-2010, 05:44 PM
whole post

You made some valid points, but one should always take into consideration the hierarchy - I just get the impression that the USFSA may pull back on Gao [for now] because she doesn't have a rep yet with Senior Intl. judges, which she needs to get the marks to achieve that magical '13' pt. total at Senior Worlds with another American lady

Polymer Bob
11-22-2010, 06:17 PM
I just get the impression that the USFSA may pull back on Gao [for now] because she doesn't have a rep yet with Senior Intl. judges, .......

Well maybe, but I get the feeling the USFSA may have given up on trying to massage National results to fit what they think ISU judges will do. Remember last year? They picked their top 2 ladies in '09 by ( what some consider ) mysterious judging. Then, their Team USA went to 4CC and sat in the audience while some scrub skated in the exhibition. ( Later, that scrub sealed the U.S. victory at the World Team Trophy. )

No. This year, the USFSA has only one reasonable option. That is to ( cough, gag, gasp, choke ) judge what they actually see on the ice.

Squibble
11-22-2010, 08:08 PM
Pinky, step away from the Christina Gao flavored Kool-Aid.

Too late! :fragile:

pinky166
11-22-2010, 08:34 PM
I really hope you're not setting Gao up for failure come Nationals, pinky. Your expectations that she's a lock for top 2 are a little high, IMO.

Gao has never competed senior internationally, and that could affect her stamina. She's been training her junior FS much more this season (as she did last season), and a lack of stamina combined with nerves likely contributed to her late-program errors at Nationals last season. She's going to have to be completely, 100 percent clean to be top 2 this year, and I just don't see that happening. :shuffle: I like Christina -- I really do -- but I'd rather she have time to develop as a skater and come back even more improved next year and ready to :kickass: on the SGP.

I still believe she'll be on the podium in 3rd or 4th though.

I'm not saying she's a lock, I'm just saying she has as good of a shot to make the team as Mirai, Alissa, Rachael, and Ashley do. Last season I think her scores were held back a little because they didn't want to have to put her on the Olympic Team if the favorites bombed, where it was her senior debut at nationals and barely old enough to go, but this season it won't be her first season competing at senior nationals and Olympic spots aren't on the line, so I tend to think she will get the scores she deserves, which if they are anything like the scores she's been getting on the JGP, will be competitive for a podium finish if she skates well.

Alissa was pretty much a non-factor for the World Team before Skate Canada, and now after one competition people are hyping her and making it seem like she's a lock for the World Team - to me that's even less reasonable because people are basing those expectations on one competition. Christina has had very good results at 4 competitions so far this season, and has successfully landed her 3f-3t at each of those competitions. Further she's the only skater apart from Rachael Flatt who hasn't laid an egg this season - Wagner's FS at NHK, Mirai's FS at CoC, Alissa's programs at Mids are all very troubling and concerning - if they perform like that at Worlds, its very unlikely we will get 3 spots back.

Maximillian
11-22-2010, 08:37 PM
We don't deserve three spots until we earn three spots. Just sayin...

mgobluegirl
11-22-2010, 10:01 PM
Alissa was pretty much a non-factor for the World Team before Skate Canada, and now after one competition people are hyping her and making it seem like she's a lock for the World Team.

I don't think anyone would say she's a lock for anything, it's just that the idea of a clean Czisny is :swoon:. I'd say if she skates a clean short at nationals, she'll be in the lead at that point, pretty much regardless of what others do (with the possible exception of Nagasu). The GOE she gets on her spins will negate the lack of a 3-3, especially when compared to Flatt or Gao.

Still, my (hypothetical) vcash is on the team being the same as last year, as long as Nagasu's injury/conditioning issues are resolved by Nationals. I think a team made up of injury-free Nagasu and Flatt is the best chance we've got to regain the 3rd spot. Their Olympic placements would have gotten it.

Send Gao to Junior Worlds... we need her there! It's going to be more competitive than ever to make sure that we get 2 spots for each JGP (only the countries that medal at JW do) and 3 spots for JW next season, and Christina is our best shot to maintain that.

AliasJohnDoe
11-22-2010, 10:09 PM
Further she's the only skater apart from Rachael Flatt who hasn't laid an egg this season - Wagner's FS at NHK, Mirai's FS at CoC, Alissa's programs at Mids are all very troubling and concerning - if they perform like that at Worlds, its very unlikely we will get 3 spots back.

But if Gao scored 47.66 in the SP at Worlds like she did at JGP Germany, she'd be lucky to make the cut for the LP. And if she made the cut for the LP, she'd be so buried, she wouldn't get the PCS she needed to even crack the top 10. Gao can lay an egg just as good as the rest of them.