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pinky166
08-28-2010, 02:03 PM
Zawadzki and Gao are needed to maintain the spots of JGP and Jr Worlds. They will never place top 2 at US nationals even if their performances are better than Nagasu and Flatt in everyone's eyes.

I disagree with this. Remember 2008? When Mirai, Rachael, Ashley, and Caroline ranked 1-4 and were all either 14 or 15 and appeared much younger than that. Something like that could happen this year. I wouldn't be surprised if Gao, Zawadzki, Siraj were all on the podium at nationals this year, as the only other senior lady who is definitively better than those three at this point is Nagasu, and she will likely be on that podium too, although with her injury she may be sidelined for a bit.

Skaters like Flatt, Wagner, Czisny, Zhang are good and all but so were Kimmie and Emily for awhile there, then once they became less consistent with the hard jumps, other girls surpassed them. The way I see it:

Flatt needs to get her 3-3 back consistently and maintain her great consistency on the rest of her jumps to stay at the top. Ballet classes and increased speed would also help.

Wagner needs a proper lutz and needs to stop 2 footing so many of her jumps or if she can't do that, then she needs a solid 3-3 to stay at the top

Czisny probably doesn't need a 3-3 to be at the top, but she has to stop falling so much and fix her URs to the point where she can consistently land 5-6 triples in a FS (not her usual 3)

Zhang needs to successfully overhaul her technique, and then be able to land her jumps consistently and either increase her speed a lot, or if she can't do that, get a solid 3-3 where the second jump is consistently rotated.

I really don't see all those skaters mastering all that by nationals in January, which is why I believe a new generation is coming.

RD
08-28-2010, 02:59 PM
What happened to Flatt, though?

chipso1
08-28-2010, 05:18 PM
It's still quite early in the season for Flatt. She could end up having a very good season, but my point was that she is by no means "guaranteed" a top 2 placing at Nationals. Ditto for Nagasu, or anyone for that matter.

pinky166
08-28-2010, 06:08 PM
It's still quite early in the season for Flatt. She could end up having a very good season, but my point was that she is by no means "guaranteed" a top 2 placing at Nationals. Ditto for Nagasu, or anyone for that matter.

Agreed. I don't think anyone should really be counted as a "shoo-in" or definitely out as of right now, including young skaters like Gao and Zawadzki. If it was an Olympic year I could see potentially the younger skaters scores being held down intentionally, but as it's not an Olympic year, I tend to think the judging will be normal. Also I don't think any of the current US senior ladies are really USFSA "pets" or favorites.

Nomad
08-29-2010, 09:07 PM
... I wouldn't be surprised if Gao, Zawadzki, Siraj were all on the podium at nationals this year...

I don't see that happening. Not at all. Top 10, maybe but knocking everyone else off the podium? No.

pinky166
08-29-2010, 09:12 PM
I don't see that happening. Not at all. Top 10, maybe but knocking everyone else off the podium? No.

All I can say is Nationals 2008. How do explain that one?

Polymer Bob
08-29-2010, 09:52 PM
All I can say is Nationals 2008. How do explain that one?

In 2008, the ladies who were expected to do well skated poorly. Then the older ladies we sent to worlds could not maintain 3 spots.
Then we send one older and one younger lady in 2009, and they failed to win back 3 spots.
Then we sent 2 younger ladies in 2010, and they failed to win back 3 spots.

Champs Camp appears to be over. Has anyone heard any new reports?

Nomad
08-29-2010, 10:08 PM
All I can say is Nationals 2008. How do explain that one?

The favorites bombed.

JerseySlore
08-29-2010, 10:16 PM
IMO healthy Nagasu is as shoe in as it can get.

Polymer Bob
08-29-2010, 10:24 PM
IMO healthy Nagasu is as shoe in as it can get.

Though I wonder. If Mirai does poorly during the Grand Prix, but recovers in time for Nationals, will her poor Grand Prix performance hurt her score at Nationals?

JerseySlore
08-29-2010, 10:28 PM
Though I wonder. If Mirai does poorly during the Grand Prix, but recovers in time for Nationals, will her poor Grand Prix performance hurt her score at Nationals?

IMO only if other girls get spectacular gp results (jgp wouldn't count that much).

pinky166
08-29-2010, 10:30 PM
In 2008, the ladies who were expected to do well skated poorly. Then the older ladies we sent to worlds could not maintain 3 spots.
Then we send one older and one younger lady in 2009, and they failed to win back 3 spots.
Then we sent 2 younger ladies in 2010, and they failed to win back 3 spots.

Champs Camp appears to be over. Has anyone heard any new reports?

Exactly. The same thing could happen this year. If the USFSA has two young skaters who are consistent, have all their triples and have solid 3-3s (ie Zawadzki and Gao), I see no reason not to send them if they place 1-2 at nationals. There are plenty of skaters who can represent the US well at junior worlds, if the USFSA wants 3 spots back at senior worlds, they should pay attention and realize that if Nagasu is in good form, they should send her because the international judges regard her as a top skater and will give her high marks if she skates well. The 2nd spot is wide open IMO because Alissa has been given 2 chances to go to Worlds and has let the nerves get the best of her both times, Rachael unless she skates perfectly gets mediocre scores from international judges (eg 2009 CoC, 2010 Worlds), Ashley even when she skates well doesn't get great scores from international judges (2009 GPF - skated better than everyone else in the event and still only got 4th). I mean Zhang may be a logical choice if she improves her jumps a lot because at least she gets decently marked by international judges despite her flaws.

Why should the USFSA keep sending the same skaters to Worlds if they have failed to bring home good results in the past? I mean, Czisny went twice, finished 15th and 11th, Wagner went once and finished 16th, Flatt went twice and finished a distant 5th after skating almost perfectly and then 9th when she had a few mistakes. Nagasu had a mess of a FS at Worlds and still finished 7th, and was very close to bronze. Unless Czisny, Wagner, Flatt all have miraculous breakthroughs this season, the World team should consist of Nagasu and either Gao, Zawadzki, and Zhang. If Nagasu is still recovering and Zhang's new technique isn't stable by then, then the team will likely be Gao and Zawadzki, with the offchance of Cesario or Gong making the team if they seem really strong by then.

RD
08-29-2010, 10:46 PM
Exactly. The same thing could happen this year. If the USFSA has two young skaters who are consistent, have all their triples and have solid 3-3s (ie Zawadzki and Gao), I see no reason not to send them if they place 1-2 at nationals.

Send them, sure, IF they earn it.

I maintain that the US' best hope at the moment is a healthy, consistent Nagasu. Her Oly performance would clearly have earned her a medal at Worlds. Without the above, there is no hope for return. Honestly. Every other US skater, even at her best, would barely crack the top 6.

Now, it's somewhat possible that the much, much hyped Gao will actually live up to it and become a formidable competitor at the World level, but until that happens, I expect more of the same this year- a wide open battle among the usual suspects for the championship and the world team. Actually, for the first time, I question whether Flatt will make it onto the world team. She seems to have regressed somewhat...

Nomad
08-29-2010, 11:04 PM
I'm inclined to agree with RD. Gao has room for improvement. To me her skating still looks very "junior." Her spins and spiral positions need work. (That's definitely a weak spot in Orser's coaching. Kim's spins and spirals don't impress me much, either.)

As for Flatt, well, I've been wondering if she will successfully defend her title, take the bronze to round out her Nats medal collection, or end up off the podium altogether.

Polymer Bob
08-29-2010, 11:09 PM
I do believe that what we all suspect is actually true - that the USFSA somehow uses ISU results to massage National scores. Now ISU results won't override a 20 point difference. But in nearly equal performances, ISU results will be a factor.