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judgejudy27
05-05-2010, 04:16 PM
Who do you believe would have medaled in the 1996 AA had all the top AA contenders hit? I believe it would have been Podkopayeva, Huilan, and Amanar, in one order or another. Pick the 3 you think.

judgejudy27
05-05-2010, 05:09 PM
Ooops I just realize I left Moceanu out of the poll.

BigB08822
05-05-2010, 07:31 PM
Apparently I agreed with everyone else. LOL!

Pod, Huilan and Dawes. If not Dawes then Miller. I think they would have gotten one US gymnast on there if they hit but bronze could have been theirs without judges help if they maxed out their scores. It would have been close between them for bronze.

Cloudy_Gumdrops
05-05-2010, 08:00 PM
Apparently I agreed with everyone else. LOL!

Pod, Huilan and Dawes. If not Dawes then Miller. I think they would have gotten one US gymnast on there if they hit but bronze could have been theirs without judges help if they maxed out their scores. It would have been close between them for bronze.


I agree about those three.

Rob
05-05-2010, 08:35 PM
Pod, Huilan and Dawes. If not Dawes then Miller.
ITA

judgejudy27
05-05-2010, 08:46 PM
Of course there is a wide definition of hitting. When a gymnast has hops on 2 or 3 of their dismounts and another has none you often say both hit and yet the field was so close this year that would have made a big difference in the results. If all the gymnasts had done their best routines with stuck landings and no obvious mistakes these are my estimates on their scores and the final standings:

Mo Huilan- 9.85 vault, 9.85 bars, 9.90 beam, 9.75 floor. 39.350 total
Lilia Podkopayeva- 9.80 vault, 9.825 bars, 9.825 beam, 9.9 floor, 39.350 total
Simona Amanar- 9.85 vault, 9.80 bars, 9.75 beam, 9.85 floor, 39.250 total
Dawes- 9.75 vault, 9.85 bars, 9.825 beam, 9.825 floor, 39.250 total
Kochetkova- 9.70 vault, 9.825 bars, 9.825 beam, 9.825 floor- 39.175 total
Moceanu- 9.70 vault, 9.80 bars, 9.85 beam, 9.825 floor, 39.175 total
Gogean- 9.80 vault, 9.70 bars, 9.80 beam, 9.825 floor- 39.125 total
Milosovici- 9.75 vault, 9.75 bars, 9.80 beam, 9.80 floor- 39.100 total
Galieva- 9.775 vault, 9.775 bars, 9.850 beam, 9.700 floor- 39.100 total
Miller- 9.75 vault, 9.75 bars, 9.875 beam, 9.700 foor- 39.075 total
Khorkina- 9.70 vault, 9.85 bars, 9.80 beam, 9.70 floor- 39.050 total

So I guess what I see in that scenario would have been Podkopayeva and Huilan fighting for gold. Amanar and Dawes fighting for bronze. Kochetkova and Moceanu with an outside shot to medal but probably fighting to get into the top 5. Gogean, Milosovici, and Galieva lower down in the top 10. Miller and Khorkina fighting for the final spot in the top 10. I am surprised Miller and Khorkina have any votes to be honest, especialy Khorkina who actually did hit all her routines that night and was still virtually out of it going into the last event even with all the mistakes.

judgejudy27
05-05-2010, 09:09 PM
On another note if Podkopayeva and little Mo had hit all their routines cold I would have been slightly dissapointed if Lilia had won. I know by results she was considered the top gymnast at the time but Mo at her best is the slightly better all around gymast IMO. The only even Lilia is better than a completley "on" Mo is floor, granted she is much better on floor, but I would still give it to Huilan in that scenario.

BigB08822
05-05-2010, 09:55 PM
Judgejudy, Miller scored a 9.762 on compulsory and 9.75 on optional bars in the aa. I find it a little odd to think she would only score 9.750 if she hit her best set. I think she could have gone 9.800 if her dismount went up more and she landed it more upright. She stuck her double layout in optionals but she barely got the dismount around. She also scored higher than the 9.85 you list for her beam, during every single optional performance she gave. I think it is fair to think she could have gone 9.900 if she stuck her dismount which, while she came so close, she never quite did in Atlanta. She always had a small shuffle of a foot or something, an outright stick would have surely resulted in a higher score. I'm just noticing you gave many athletes the option of scoring a bit higher than they did during the competition but for some reason you think Miller would have scored lower on beam than she did during any other phase? Quite odd.

judgejudy27
05-05-2010, 09:58 PM
Shannon actually did hit her best bars set in the AA final with a stuck landing and got a 9.750. So I dont even have to speculate there. She isnt capable of doing the double layout dismount on bars that well as far as form and amplitude, she never has, especialy not in later years with her bigger body. She did a 9.787 in team finals on bars but all the scores were higher that day. To witness just look at Simona Amanar's scores from team optionals in Atlanta:

vault- 9.887, bars- 9.825, beam- 9.800, floor- 9.887.

The same goes for Miller's double layout on floor. She is capable of landing it on floor much better than she did in Atlanta, but only with somewhat bent knees and not much power (eg- the one she did at U.S Nationals).

As for beam she scored a 9.862 on every beam routine she did in Atlanta. The one she did in the AA was stuck cold and the one she did in team optionals and event finals had the smallest shuffle. Except on vault judges hardly deduct anything even for small regular hops, let alone a tiny shuffle, which indicates as I suspect no deduction or difference from the judges. I was doing an rough estimates on the scores which is why I said 9.850 rather than 9.862, but yes I could change that to 9.862 easily. If one actually assumes the judges would ever deduct half a tenth for a tiny shuffle (outside of vault they clearly dont going over all the scores gymnasts get with and without landing errors) then I should assume they had deducted .3 for Mo's huge hop backwards on her AA beam routine and assume she was scoring a 10.1 with a stuck landing too. If one takes the supposed status deductions for landings literally than one would have to assume Amanar, Podkopayeva, Kochetkova would have all scored 9.887 in bar events finals and buried Khorkina, Chow, and Bi with a stuck landing too as they had a regular hop each (if a tiny shuffle is half a tenth, a regular hop would have to be a tenth). Yet even assuming the half tenth for each with their regular hops on landing that would have given each a 9.837 and 5 way tie with Chow and Bi for silver seems unlikely.

BigB08822
05-05-2010, 10:10 PM
Yes but Miller got a 9.862 on her beam sets and they all had one obvious error. During team optionals and EF she took the small step/shuffle on her dismount. During her AA set she had a very obvious step back during her flight series. I know steps on series are not the same as a step on vault or during a dismount but it was obvious and I doubt many judges over looked it. Her dismount was also awfully close to being one of those "hurry up and salute before I step back" dismounts. I know the difference is not much but I think she was capable of 9.900 if she had no errors and since she scored 9.862 each time with one small error, I can only think her score would have possibly gone up even if only by a small small amount.

I lover arguing gymnastics so I don't mean to be "fighting" or anything. Just really fun to discuss and dissect these routines that I have seen thousands of times by now!

Her AA beam routine: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTYaZNAHkyo&feature=related

judgejudy27
05-05-2010, 10:16 PM
I'm just noticing you gave many athletes the option of scoring a bit higher than they did during the competition but for some reason you think Miller would have scored lower on beam than she did during any other phase? Quite odd.

Miller's beam optionals score in every phase was a 9.862 hence my estimate of a 9.850 as I wasnt going that exact on scoring guesses for each routine as it becomes just too complicated at that point. Like I said her AA beam dismount was stuck cold, check out the routine yourself which is up on youtube.

As for the others I gave the option of scoring higher:

Lilia- on bars she actually bent her knees badly on her low to high bar transition early which is a big mistake, and was very lucky the judges didnt deduct more and got a 9.8. Who knows what they really deducted but they should have decucted something. On beam she had a big hop on the dismount and scored a 9.787, her other 2 beam performances in Atlanta were 9.825.

Mo- She did not stick her landing on bars in any of her routines actually. Big step on one of her Yurchenko double fulls,. On bars double layout dismount landed forward with small step on both her optional bar routines (and the idea of her scoring any lower than 9.85 with a stick with that amazing routine would be crazy), and bounded way backwards with a hug hop on her beam dismount.

Galieva- I didnt see any of her optional vaults except for event finals. I based her scoring potential basically on her yurchenko 1 1/2 from there.

Kochetkova- I dont remember her routines from the AA too well. I based her scoring potential on her event final routines, all which had visible errors of some kind and did not max out her scoring potential.

Amanar- she didnt stick any landing except for vault, and on floor she had a big mistake doing a single turn instead of the required double turn which cost her .1 (the only reason she didnt even end up beating her two teammates). Anyway her scoring potential is hard to figure as you can see in my post above in team optionals the judges were going crazy for her, yet in AA finals they were very lukewarm even for her good performances. That is another variable that makes it hard to consider all possible factors, some panels might really like a certain gymast, others might not.

I am not sure who else you might be referring to.

judgejudy27
05-05-2010, 10:21 PM
Yes but Miller got a 9.862 on her beam sets and they all had one obvious error. During team optionals and EF she took the small step/shuffle on her dismount. During her AA set she had a very obvious step back during her flight series. I know steps on series are not the same as a step on vault or during a dismount but it was obvious and I doubt many judges over looked it. Her dismount was also awfully close to being one of those "hurry up and salute before I step back" dismounts. I know the difference is not much but I think she was capable of 9.900 if she had no errors and since she scored 9.862 each time with one small error, I can only think her score would have possibly gone up even if only by a small small amount.

I lover arguing gymnastics so I don't mean to be "fighting" or anything. Just really fun to discuss and dissect these routines that I have seen thousands of times by now!

Her AA beam routine: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTYaZNAHkyo&feature=related

Well I see what you are seeing but we will have to agree to disagree. I dont think Miller was worth a 9.9 on beam in Atlanta, unless Mo and Kui at their best were worth a 9.95 or more. Her beam was excellent but not as spectacular as those two girls I mentioned at their best, and really much if any better than Kochetkova, Marinescu, or even Podkopayeva or Dawes at their best either. I also look at how everyone was scored on beam. Lilia got 9.825 on both her somewhat hit beam sets, even though her event final ones had some small errors and her team finals one was flawless. Kochetkova was given a 9.825 for both her hit beam sets, even though her one in the AA was better.

Mo also got a 9.8 on beam in the AA even with a monstrous out of control hop backwards on the dismount:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2BpbO9sv58

I am assuming they only took a tenth or at most a tenth and a half from a 9.9 or even 9.95 at most, since they never gave out perfect 10s then. So if that is all they took for that I cant imagine Miller did anything in any of her beam routines that was deducted at all.

Anyway I bumped Miller up to a 9.875 on beam. Her placing still doesnt change.

I am definitely not changing her bars score as I dont think she was capable of doing a bars set any better than her actual AA bars routine at all, and in addition a hit Miller bars routine definitely should not score equal to a Mo Huilan bar routine with a small step forward. Others are free to estimate their own scores for each gymast of course. Those are just my opinions based on how the judges were scoring the gymnasts throughout the Games for what they did.

vesperholly
05-07-2010, 11:41 AM
Sympathy vote for Kochetkova. She was my favorite Russian of the 96 quad.

judgejudy27
05-07-2010, 03:35 PM
I am very surprised Khorkina has more votes than Kochetkova and Galieva. I dont think Khorkina was the top Russian AAer at the time of the 96 Games at all other than in hype perhaps. I know she had been 2nd at the 95 Worlds AA, however her vault and tumbling on floor in Atlanta were so weak, much worse than the previous 2 seasons even. When she hit she was getting 9.6-9.7 range scores on those events in Atlanta. Given that she did hit all her routines up until bars in Atlanta and still probably would have come in behind Gogean, Milosovici and Amanar (who had a big mistake on floor) for an AA medal even with her usual 9.85+ on bars even with all the mistakes that night, I thought of excluding her from the poll altogether. In fact if I could correct the poll I would probably replace her with Moceanu and move Khorkina in the category with Boginskaya and Piskun. If Grosheva hadnt had her 2 big mistakes in the team competition the scores say she actually would have bumped Khorkina from the AA that year too, and Khorkina had no mistakes in the team event.

I always laugh too at the fluff pieces hype in the aftermath that the fall on bars cost Khorkina the AA gold when she needed a score higher than 10 on bars to tie Lilia's total at that point. Many seemed to confuse how great a gymnast Khorkina would become with what her AA status in Atlanta really was.

Beefcake
05-07-2010, 05:49 PM
:lol: Buzz's theoretical Olympics had seven medalists.