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Marco
03-29-2010, 05:24 AM
I'm not sure Wagner would have been that much more of a "sure thing" to place well at Olys/Worlds than Flatt. Ashley hasn't broken 60 points in the short program internationally this season, and her best FS score is ~108. Flatt got pretty much the same thing for her terrible (by her standards) programs at Worlds. IMO, they're both pretty much at the same level, but Flatt is less likely to make mistakes. Ashley couldn't handle the pressure of Nationals in the short program this year...how would she have dealt with the Olympic pressure?

Not saying she is a sure thing. Nothing is a sure thing. :lol:

But Wagner was getting less downgrades as the season went on whereas Flatt was getting more. Looks like Wagner was more timed to peak at the Olympics and Worlds whereas Flatt already peaked at Nationals.

bek
03-29-2010, 05:45 AM
But Wagner was getting less downgrades as the season went on whereas Flatt was getting more. Looks like Wagner was more timed to peak at the Olympics and Worlds whereas Flatt already peaked at Nationals.

That's not true. Rachael didn't start getting downgrades until the Olympics.

Mayra
03-29-2010, 07:09 AM
But Wagner was getting less downgrades as the season went on whereas Flatt was getting more. Looks like Wagner was more timed to peak at the Olympics and Worlds whereas Flatt already peaked at Nationals.


Hindsight is 20/20 in regards to Flatt, but who's to say that Wagner was timed to peak at the Olympics and Worlds? You could argue she peaked during the GP series and her downward spiral was only beginning at Nationals. It is impossible to know one way or another because Wagner (not the USFS) took herself out of contention by once again falling in the short at Nationals, thus ending her senior season.

I'm not a fan of Flatt's skating by an stretch of the imagination, but IMO the podium was correct based on how each skater skated at Nationals.

judgejudy27
03-29-2010, 07:19 AM
I'm not sure Wagner would have been that much more of a "sure thing" to place well at Olys/Worlds than Flatt. Ashley hasn't broken 60 points in the short program internationally this season, and her best FS score is ~108. Flatt got pretty much the same thing for her terrible (by her standards) programs at Worlds. IMO, they're both pretty much at the same level, but Flatt is less likely to make mistakes. Ashley couldn't handle the pressure of Nationals in the short program this year...how would she have dealt with the Olympic pressure?

I agree. I like Wagner but I actually dont think it is likely at all she would have placed highly in Vancouver. She has placed well this year capatilizing on others mistakes and also skating in weakened fields, placing 4th at the Grand Prix final with a total barely over 160 doesnt say much. Since it is clear by the Grand Prix final even that it would be a real stretch for her to even beat a decent Suzuki the best she probably would have placed in Vancouver even skating reasonably (I have never seen her skate totally clean) would be 9th or lower.

Worlds was weaker and her chances to place well would be better, but then again if she was well placed after the short to vye for a strong result would she even hold it together in the long, or would she have held it together in the short to begin with.

Marco
03-29-2010, 10:08 AM
Hindsight is 20/20 in regards to Flatt

I have been saying the same even before Nationals and IIRC even before the season started, that Flatt would be a wrong choice for a US champion leading into the Olympics or even a wrong choice to go to the Olympics no matter how solid she seeme/ was. I don't wuzrob her placement at Nationals but I would have placed her 3rd at best myself. I guess given her practices and her consistency up to that point, including beating Kim at the lp of Skate America, USFS took the short-sighted view of promoting her finally (after giving her crap in the past 2 seasons).


but who's to say that Wagner was timed to peak at the Olympics and Worlds? You could argue she peaked during the GP series and her downward spiral was only beginning at Nationals.

Sure - we will never know. Just like we would never know if the US would regain its 3rd spot if they had sent Zhang instead of Czisny to Worlds in LA. Didn't stop the whole board going berserk over it.

It's true however that Wagner's lp outings had become progressively stronger with each competition up til Nationals. I suppose you can say the same about Flatt as well. Just IMO Wagner had a lot more to rely on even if the jumps didn't work.


If Wagner hadn't fallen in the SP, she would have gone to the Olys and Worlds (instead of Nagasu). I like Wagner, but she didn't earn a spot. Flatt and Nagasu did.

I don't doubt for a second that if Wagner was ahead of Flatt before Nagasu skated, Nagasu would have been a 2 time US Champion. They were going to take a shot at Nagasu either way if she went clean because her jumps were strong and rotated at practice all week and she could score big internationally (unlike Flatt).

If the team was going to be Nagasu and Flatt, Flatt would get the title because she was placed better internationally and was a bigger medal hope. If the team was going to be Nagasu and Wagner, Nagasu would get the title because of her bigger scoring potential. I think the USFS is kicking themselves for not crowning Nagasu at Nationals - could have been the difference between 4th and bronze in Vancouver.

Anita18
03-29-2010, 11:06 AM
I think Rachael's skating suffered a bit this season due to the fact this was her Senior year in high school, with all the social and academic events that go with that. She peaked at Nationals and never quite made it back to that level at Olympics and Worlds.
It's been a while since I graduated HS, but I do remember that the hardest year was junior year, because that's when you had to take the SATs and some of the harder AP classes for them to count for college applications. The first half of senior year was stressful only because of college apps, but beyond that you were home free. :) Second half of senior year was known as slacking time. :lol: Since she's already been accepted (to some very good schools), they can't kick her out unless she fails the rest of her classes and physically doesn't show up for the AP tests.


IIRC Debie Thomas was a pre-med at Stanford when she was competing at world level (I think she transferred to Colorado later). Wylie did compete at the senior national level while studying at Harvard, but after he graduated, his skating improved significantly.

Some really smart people are able to handle a lot more than mortals like me are. I give Rachael the benefit of doubt and say that she will be able to do it, unless the school is too rigid to allow it.
Debi and Paul didn't have to contend with traveling and training for a Grand Prix series. They only had to show up for Nationals and Worlds. I have no idea how the lack of early-season training would help their basic class schedule, but showing up in person to lab is a REQUIREMENT for science and pre-med majors. You can't skip out on that, and I highly doubt any school would open up a lab and get a TA in for just Rachael to work alone. Although I'm pretty sure that schools with a Div I athletic program like UCLA or Stanford would have options available for training/traveling athletes.

Hannahclear
03-29-2010, 11:33 AM
I don't know how many of you get the USFSA magazine, but they had a picture of Rachel during her Nats LP in the current issue. She's in a pose move, with one arm extended. Her shoulders are up near her ears. What she really needs is intensive work on carriage. Currently, it ruins the look of what she does. Her shape is her shape, but the carriage could really be improved.

Debbie S
03-29-2010, 02:29 PM
I think the USFS is kicking themselves for not crowning Nagasu at Nationals - could have been the difference between 4th and bronze in Vancouver.There was about a 15-point difference between Rochette and Nagasu. Nagasu was behind Flatt in the SP - remember, Flatt did a clean 3-3, Nagasu did a 3-2. Nagasu finished barely ahead of Ando. Do you really think that if Nagasu were the Nat'l champ, she would have beaten Rochette?

Flatt was 5th at 09 Worlds and had the highest scores of any U.S. lady on the GP (I do believe she scored higher than Wagner - unfortunately, she competed in deeper fields and missed the GPF). She was clearly the front-runner going into Nats. Nagasu was very inconsistent over the past 2 seasons at that point and I'm sure there was doubt that she could handle Oly pressure. The end result at Nats reflected what the skaters did on the ice. Over both programs, Flatt and Nagasu were the best, in that order.

I suspect that if Sasha Cohen skated even close to clean, the Oly team would have been Flatt and Cohen.

flyingsit
03-29-2010, 02:49 PM
In 2008 wern't the current crop of up and coming girls supposed to be so good that we would earn 3 spots back once they started competing at the sr. level? Remember all the flack Kimmie and Bebe got for placing 7th and 10th at 2008 worlds? Wasn't Caroline Zhang supposed to be the next Michelle Kwan? LOL.


And every time someone goes on about how great Ashley Wagner is, and IF ONLY she could go to Worlds and compete there she would be rewarded, I remember that she DID go to Worlds in 2008 with Kimmie and Bebe and finished somewhere around 15th. At least in 2009 Alissa finished 11th, and she was hammered SO HARD for that placement...

Ziggy
03-29-2010, 03:13 PM
If Wagner hadn't fallen in the SP, she would have gone to the Olys and Worlds (instead of Nagasu). I like Wagner, but she didn't earn a spot. Flatt and Nagasu did.

If Flatt hadn't been overscored on the PCS, Wagner would have gone to Olys and Worlds. :P

gkelly
03-29-2010, 03:33 PM
Sure she has great basics and speed and some musicality, but everyone knows that figure skating is primarily a jump competition.

It hasn't always been, and maybe it no longer is.

Maybe "everybody" has to revise what they "know" to fit the current facts. ;)

People have been saying all along "it's figure skating, not figure jumping," and I think for most judges the skating usually came first and the jumps second. But since the winners usually have both good skating and good jumping, sometimes the balance tips more toward the better jumping.

Jot the Dot Dot
03-29-2010, 04:16 PM
Rachael has a stocky build, with short legs, and she is short-waisted. She is never going to look lithe and willowy like Kim or as slim as Nagasu. She is strong and healthy, and that is what matters.

Does anyone have a problem with that? Gal is cute, 'nuff said. This is stocky? http://www.nbcolympics.com/mm/photo/sports/general/26/34/07/263407_m14.jpg

pinky166
03-29-2010, 04:26 PM
It hasn't always been, and maybe it no longer is.

Maybe "everybody" has to revise what they "know" to fit the current facts. ;)

People have been saying all along "it's figure skating, not figure jumping," and I think for most judges the skating usually came first and the jumps second. But since the winners usually have both good skating and good jumping, sometimes the balance tips more toward the better jumping.

I really think the jumps are the most important. Yes, Yuna and Mao have nice spirals and artistry, but they get the big scores and have been on top for so long because of their jumps. Yuna's jumps are massive and her 3-3 is better than most of the men, and Mao has 3a and for many years also did really difficult 3f-3lo and got it ratified. Miki and Joannie are also frequently up there because they can really jump too, but where Joannie doesn't have as much technical difficulty and Miki doesn't have as much artistry, Mao and Yuna stay at the top.

Bev Johnston
03-29-2010, 04:50 PM
Rachael has a stocky build, with short legs, and she is short-waisted. She is never going to look lithe and willowy like Kim or as slim as Nagasu. She is strong and healthy, and that is what matters.

Add to that the round shoulders, short neck, and round face, and she automatically almost looks "chubby" - NOT saying that she IS. All of these features just combine as sort of an optical illusion. But when you look at her waist, she is quite thin.

I think Rachael seems to be in superb cardio shape. She never seems to be huffing and puffing near the end of her programs. I wonder, though, if she does any weight training. Some bicep/tricep and upper back definition could go a long way to dispel the misconceptions that she's not fit.

I also think a make-over in the costume and hair department could help out a lot. Before this season, I thought her styling was much too old for her. The costumes this year were better, but still not great for her body type.

The other problem for me is that Rachael seems to skate from her head and not so much from her heart. She looks like she is doing what she's been told to do in her programs, but I don't see much interpretation from her. Yes, she's solid and doesn't make me nervous when she skates, but she's also not very exciting and doesn't elicit emotion from those of us watching. She needs to figure out how to bring some of that excitement into her skating.

chipso1
03-29-2010, 05:07 PM
If Flatt hadn't been overscored on the PCS, Wagner would have gone to Olys and Worlds. :P

No. If Wagner hadn't fallen in the SP, took some time to fix her egregious flutz or opt for the 3loop instead, and not two-footed numerous jumps in the FS, she would have gone to Olys and Worlds.