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oubik
04-14-2010, 01:24 PM
As Lanna mentioned on the previous page, both Elizaveta Tuktamisheva and Adelina Sotnikova finally will be JGP age-eligible in the coming season.

...if the 14 years minimum for JGP would not be voted at Congress :wall::wall::wall:

pinky166
04-14-2010, 05:31 PM
Yeah, I wouldn't count on that. I can see Adelina and Elizaveta making the final, but Zawadski & Imai are very strong, as are some of the more obskure Japanese girls.

I don't think the US field is as strong next year as year's past, but they are never to be underestimated (and the not quite old enough novices are very good). I think Angela Wang could do really well. She finished behind Siraj and Jiang, but she has all the triples. I hope she gets a JGP assignment.

Zawadzki and Imai might be competing on the senior circuit in the coming season, that's what I was more thinking. Plus if Shelepen, Ovcharova, Agafonova, and Birukova stay another season on the JGP they'd be likely to make the final as well, and then it really could be a Russian sweep. And then there's cute little Roza :) .

Baga is very good but prone to meltdowns in the FS, Gao will compete on the senior circuit, Kawamura has lost most of her triples, Maxwell if she's not injured will likely compete senior so we shall see. Also, I don't get this hype about Imai, she was 16th at Junior Worlds last year and didn't seem that great as far as I could tell this season. The Fujisawa girl is much better than her IMO.

I'm hoping Jiang and Cesario get JGP assignments in the coming season, they are very nice skaters and I think they could do well if the lack of reputation doesn't hurt them.

pinky166
04-14-2010, 05:35 PM
Yep, because they have almost fascist selection system in ballet schools.

:eek: that's no good. Still, I really can't picture someone like Shelepen or Ovcharova ever being like heavy, they look like the kind of girls who will stay thin as adults, for those two the height may be more of an issue though, apparently they both grew like 6 cm in the past year!

chipso1
04-14-2010, 05:59 PM
Zawadzki and Imai might be competing on the senior circuit in the coming season, that's what I was more thinking. Plus if Shelepen, Ovcharova, Agafonova, and Birukova stay another season on the JGP they'd be likely to make the final as well, and then it really could be a Russian sweep. And then there's cute little Roza :) .

While Zawadzki may do the SGP, I'm starting to think Tom Zakrajsek will want her to get some JGP experience first. I think she would be totally competitive in the senior ranks, but Tom doesn't seem like the type of coach to throw his skaters into situations before he feels they are ready.

I think Shelepen will be on the SGP, as she has already medaled on the JGP and at the Final. Ovcharova has skary jump technique and doesn't appear to be the strongest competitor...it's a little premature to be anointing her. Based on the clip posted earlier in this thread, Sheveleva doesn't seem to have the greatest speed or jump technique (her flip particularly). She may be in danger of even getting an initial JGP assignment based on the strength of the Russian junior ladies.


Baga is very good but prone to meltdowns in the FS, Gao will compete on the senior circuit, Kawamura has lost most of her triples, Maxwell if she's not injured will likely compete senior so we shall see. Also, I don't get this hype about Imai, she was 16th at Junior Worlds last year and didn't seem that great as far as I could tell this season. The Fujisawa girl is much better than her IMO.

Baga did extremely well in her two JGP events last season. Yes, she had issues at the Final -- her first major ISU event -- but she regrouped nicely at Junior Worlds with a fantastic free skate. Kawamura is a non-factor; she won't be getting a JGP assignment anyway, and I doubt Maxwell will either.


I'm hoping Jiang and Cesario get JGP assignments in the coming season, they are very nice skaters and I think they could do well if the lack of reputation doesn't hurt them.

Lack of reputation? They, just like Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova, have never been on the JGP so it's not a surprise that they aren't established with the international judges. Cesario and Jiang have a little international experience in winning their events at Gardena last week, but I can't imagine they wouldn't be rewarded if they skate up to their potential on the JGP. :rolleyes: Baga had never competed internationally before last season and she won two gold medals. I don't think it will be a problem for them if they skate well.

Ziggy
04-14-2010, 07:03 PM
Oh yeah, like Hamilton and Bezic. I get it now.

See, that's why I would rather claw my eyes out than watch skating with American commentary.


...if the 14 years minimum for JGP would not be voted at Congress :wall::wall::wall:

:mad: :mad: :mad:

oleada
04-15-2010, 12:16 AM
Lack of reputation? They, just like Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova, have never been on the JGP so it's not a surprise that they aren't established with the international judges. Cesario and Jiang have a little international experience in winning their events at Gardena last week, but I can't imagine they wouldn't be rewarded if they skate up to their potential on the JGP. :rolleyes: Baga had never competed internationally before last season and she won two gold medals. I don't think it will be a problem for them if they skate well.

I don't think lack of reputation will hurt anyone, but Jiang only has 3 triples (T, S, Lo), and they are not very consistent. Siraj, despite finishing 2nd to Jiang, has shown more promise, I think, and has a 3F. Cesario's lovely, but very prone to downgrades. If they all skate clean, I can't see them beating Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva based on what they've shown so far.

chipso1
04-15-2010, 12:17 AM
If they all skate clean, I can't see them beating Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva based on what they've shown so far.

I can't, either, but the notion that their "lack of reputation" will hurt them is ridiculous (which is what I was getting to in the original post, but perhaps didn't word well). :)

oleada
04-15-2010, 12:36 AM
I can't, either, but the notion that their "lack of reputation" will hurt them is ridiculous (which is what I was getting to in the original post, but perhaps didn't word well). :)

We agree then :) Didn't hurt Baga, or you know, Yu-Na Kim some years ago ;)

pinky166
04-15-2010, 12:42 AM
While Zawadzki may do the SGP, I'm starting to think Tom Zakrajsek will want her to get some JGP experience first. I think she would be totally competitive in the senior ranks, but Tom doesn't seem like the type of coach to throw his skaters into situations before he feels they are ready.


I agree, but if Agnes really wants to do the SGP, I don't see Tom convincing her out of it.



I think Shelepen will be on the SGP, as she has already medaled on the JGP and at the Final. Ovcharova has skary jump technique and doesn't appear to be the strongest competitor...it's a little premature to be anointing her. Based on the clip posted earlier in this thread, Sheveleva doesn't seem to have the greatest speed or jump technique (her flip particularly). She may be in danger of even getting an initial JGP assignment based on the strength of the Russian junior ladies.


I agree about Shelepen.

I think you're assessment of Ovcharova is unfair. Yes, she is not the most consistent but she is certainly no worse of a competitor than the likes of Baga, Agafonova, and all the other girls from Russia. She made it to the JGPF as a 13 year old so clearly she has promise, plus her PCS are always among the top at junior events. She won the silver medal at the junior nationals in a deep field, defeating skaters like Shelepen, Tuktamysheva, and Sotnikova. She also won the SP at Junior Worlds with an impressive score of nearly 60 points, receiving +GOE for all her jumps. Her technique seems to be greatly improved since JGP Budapest this fall and I'm sure she will continue to work on it. Clearly the judges think she has a lot of promise so I would not be so quick to write her off - had she delivered a clean LP at Junior Worlds she likely would have won the event, given her scores in the SP. Also, why would the judges give her such a high score if she wasn't a good skater? I think she is blossoming into a great skater and she is so young that she has time to work on her consistency to become a stronger competitor.

You're right about Sheveleva, but I think a lot will depend on if Agafonova, Ovcharova, and Birukova move up to seniors this season or not. You didn't mention Agafonova or Birukova in your post, thoughts on those two?




Baga did extremely well in her two JGP events last season. Yes, she had issues at the Final -- her first major ISU event -- but she regrouped nicely at Junior Worlds with a fantastic free skate. Kawamura is a non-factor; she won't be getting a JGP assignment anyway, and I doubt Maxwell will either.


Baga had issues at the final and at nationals and in the SP at Junior Worlds. I'm not saying she's a terrible competitor but she's about as inconsistent as most of the other girls. I agree about Kawamura but I don't know what the deal with Maxwell is where she didn't compete at nationals (it's a shame she didn't, she probably would have done quite well given how poorly Alissa and Caroline skated) so I don't know how the USFSA deals with stuff like that.



Lack of reputation? They, just like Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova, have never been on the JGP so it's not a surprise that they aren't established with the international judges. Cesario and Jiang have a little international experience in winning their events at Gardena last week, but I can't imagine they wouldn't be rewarded if they skate up to their potential on the JGP. :rolleyes: Baga had never competed internationally before last season and she won two gold medals. I don't think it will be a problem for them if they skate well.

True, I guess I didn't really think of that, I just assumed people knew about Liza and Adelina because they have done so well in Russia. Cesario seems to be improving her URs and if she can continue to do that she could be a factor. Jiang seems more consistent than a lot of the other juniors which might come in handy.

pinky166
04-15-2010, 12:49 AM
I don't think lack of reputation will hurt anyone, but Jiang only has 3 triples (T, S, Lo), and they are not very consistent. Siraj, despite finishing 2nd to Jiang, has shown more promise, I think, and has a 3F. Cesario's lovely, but very prone to downgrades. If they all skate clean, I can't see them beating Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva based on what they've shown so far.

That is a big if, Sotinkova has been averaging about 3 falls in her FS this entire season. When she is on, she's great, but she fell 4 times in her FS at junior nationals so I have to think something is up. Puberty maybe, so hopefully she can overcome it soon, but if it's due to injury that could make it more difficult.

judgejudy27
04-15-2010, 04:00 AM
Anna has not been as consistent all season as the 2 Polina's, Murakami, or even Christina Gao. I dont know if it is all being a headcase or her jump technique problems but she is the only one of the top juniors who never seems to close to a clean long program.

chipso1
04-15-2010, 04:05 AM
Anna has not been as consistent all season as the 2 Polina's, Murakami, or even Christina Gao. I dont know if it is all being a headcase or her jump technique problems but she is the only one of the top juniors who never seems to close to a clean long program.

I think the problem is that her jump technique, while bad, is even worse in pressure-filled situations. I think she's a better skater than Shelepen and Agafonova, but her jumps aren't as nice as theirs. Perhaps some of this is due to the fact that she (Ovcharova) isn't as "stick like" as the two Polina's. It will certainly be interesting to see which of the Russian babies are able to deal with puberty the best.

pinky166
04-15-2010, 04:10 AM
Anna has not been as consistent all season as the 2 Polina's, Murakami, or even Christina Gao. I dont know if it is all being a headcase or her jump technique problems but she is the only one of the top juniors who never seems to close to a clean long program.

Well, she beat Christina Gao in the SP and FS at the JGP Poland, and Kiri in the SP and FS at the JGPF, and beat both of them overall at Jr Worlds. And she did almost a perfect LP at the Russian Junior Nationals where she landed 6 triples (2 lutzes, 2 flips - all with no edge calls)and only stepped out of one jump. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2_EytmJFwk . Maybe not the most asthetically pleasing jumps but they were all rotated and landed and she got a big score of 109+, winning the FS at that event. Also, Anna's not close to clean LPs still always score about 90 points, which on the junior ranks is pretty decent.

pinky166
04-15-2010, 04:21 AM
I think the problem is that her jump technique, while bad, is even worse in pressure-filled situations. I think she's a better skater than Shelepen and Agafonova, but her jumps aren't as nice as theirs. Perhaps some of this is due to the fact that she (Ovcharova) isn't as "stick like" as the two Polina's. It will certainly be interesting to see which of the Russian babies are able to deal with puberty the best.

I think that may be true. It does look like the jumps have at least improved though, even though they still are not ideal in their asthetics/technique. She does have good speed though and no edge issues which I think saves her. Even when she makes mistakes in her LPs, her score is not that low compared to the other girls because her PCS, spins, spirals, footwork, and performance are superior, in addition to her lack of edge issues and tendency to fully rotate her jumps, even when she falls.

I actually think some of Anna's issues in the LP are puberty based because it looks like she is going through puberty now whereas the Polina's have not yet started puberty. The other thing is that Anna has only gotten most of her triple jumps recently. Last season she only had 2 triples I think and that's why she was so far down in the standings at Jr Nationals. So the combination of learning new jumps while adjusting to a new body is bound to make it a bit difficult, and that may be what she's going through now. The thing is though, she's managing to do well for herself and improve regardless, so in the future when the other girls are fighting their puberty woes, Anna may be fully adjusted to her new body and be able to pull ahead. Doesn't mean it will happen, but it does look like she'll be finished with the dreaded puberty days before most of the others, and having those rough experience while competing on the junior circuit will tarnish her reputation less than having it happen on the senior ranks (like what happened to Mirai and Caroline). If she does another year on the JGP, then when she moves up to seniors she will only be 15 and likely adjusted to her body whereas I think Shelepen will have to battle puberty while on the senior ranks.

judgejudy27
04-15-2010, 08:30 AM
Well, she beat Christina Gao in the SP and FS at the JGP Poland, and Kiri in the SP and FS at the JGPF, and beat both of them overall at Jr Worlds. And she did almost a perfect LP at the Russian Junior Nationals where she landed 6 triples (2 lutzes, 2 flips - all with no edge calls)and only stepped out of one jump. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2_EytmJFwk . Maybe not the most asthetically pleasing jumps but they were all rotated and landed and she got a big score of 109+, winning the FS at that event. Also, Anna's not close to clean LPs still always score about 90 points, which on the junior ranks is pretty decent.

In the hypothetical she skated cleanly she probably be beating any of the current Juniors other than possibly Murakami so just because she sometimes beats Gao or Kiri doesnt prove at all she is being consistent. Those are skaters she would beat all the time at this point if she werent the most inconsistent of all the top juniors probably. Kiri is also inconsistent and would be beating Gao easily if she werent as her PCS are higher from the judges even for flawed performances. Kostner and Nagasu often beat Flatt, I wouldnt say that means they are more consistent skaters than Flatt.

I did not see her Russian Nationals LP until now. However she was only 8th in the short so she must have really bombed that.